India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a critical weather alert warning of persistent heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and gusty winds over the next four days.
This alert follows the formation of a cyclonic circulation over the east-central Arabian Sea, which is expected to evolve into a low-pressure area off the Karnataka coast by May 21, leading to intensifying rainfall patterns across Maharashtra. According to IMD officials, this developing weather system will significantly impact the South Konkan region, southern parts of Madhya Maharashtra, and Mumbai. The atmospheric instability caused by the upper-air cyclonic activity will likely bring heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied by thunder and lightning, with wind speeds potentially reaching 50–60 kmph. The IMD has forecast that the cyclonic influence will gradually move northward from May 22, further increasing rainfall intensity across the state until May 25.
The current spell of pre-monsoon activity marks a notable deviation from recent years. After weeks of moderate showers and thunderstorms, the city is witnessing an unusually early onset of monsoon-like conditions. Experts from IMD confirm that the southwest monsoon is set to make landfall in Kerala within the next four to five days, with Mumbai likely to experience its arrival by the first week of June—almost a week earlier than the typical onset date of June 11. As per IMD’s 48-hour forecast for Mumbai city and its suburban regions, the weather is expected to remain cloudy with intermittent periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Maximum temperatures are projected to hover around 34 degrees Celsius, with minimum temperatures around 26 degrees Celsius. The conditions are further compounded by high humidity and localised gusts, prompting concerns over public safety and urban preparedness.
Rainfall data from the city’s two main weather observatories—Colaba and Santacruz—provides a stark illustration of the unusual weather activity. The Colaba observatory has recorded 85.2 mm of rainfall as of May 18, one of the highest totals for the month in recent years. In contrast, May 2024 recorded just 0.4 mm of rainfall, while May 2023 and 2022 saw 17.2 mm and 6.6 mm, respectively. The last time Colaba witnessed such significant rainfall was in May 2021, when it recorded a whopping 257.8 mm. Similarly, the Santacruz observatory has documented 45.6 mm of rainfall this May—well above the 0.5 mm and 3.4 mm recorded in May 2022 and 2023. The last comparable year was again 2021, when the station logged 256 mm of rainfall. These figures confirm a dramatic reversal of recent dry trends and reinforce the forecast of an early and potentially intense monsoon season.
This meteorological shift presents challenges and opportunities for a city grappling with climate volatility. Mumbai, like many coastal urban centres, faces the dual burden of preparing for extreme weather while attempting to build resilience against long-term climate threats. Sudden weather changes, particularly when intensified by cyclonic systems, can overwhelm stormwater infrastructure, lead to transport disruptions, and exacerbate vulnerabilities in low-lying and informal settlements. City officials and civic agencies are on high alert, coordinating with disaster management units to respond to possible flooding, waterlogging, and tree fall incidents. Pre-monsoon maintenance efforts have been accelerated, with a particular focus on clearing drains and securing power infrastructure. However, concerns remain over whether the city’s existing systems are adequate to manage the anticipated deluge, especially in the face of climate-induced extremes.
Environmental analysts note that while early rainfall may alleviate immediate water scarcity concerns, it also underscores the growing unpredictability of seasonal cycles due to global warming. The IMD’s alert comes as a reminder that urban planning must account not only for average weather patterns but also for extremes. To future-proof cities like Mumbai, experts urge investment in sustainable drainage systems, decentralised rainwater harvesting, and flood-resilient public spaces. The current pattern also highlights the pressing need for equitable climate adaptation strategies. Vulnerable communities, particularly those in informal housing clusters along rivers or drainage basins, are often the first to be impacted by flooding and infrastructural failure. Ensuring that monsoon preparedness includes adequate shelter, emergency services, and healthcare access for these populations is a civic imperative.
The civic administration has requested citizens to remain vigilant and avoid unnecessary travel during periods of intense rainfall. In addition, residents are advised to secure loose structures, stay indoors during lightning activity, and report any instances of tree falls or electric hazards. With the IMD continuously updating forecasts, authorities are relying on technology and public cooperation to mitigate the impact of the coming weather systems. In the broader context of India’s monsoon season, the early signs in Mumbai mirror similar patterns across southern and western regions, where the monsoon appears to be advancing at a faster pace than usual. If these trends hold, the country could witness an early onset of the monsoon across much of its expanse—bringing both relief for agriculture and challenges for infrastructure.
While it is too early to predict the full scope of the upcoming monsoon season, this week’s weather developments indicate a strong and early start. For Mumbai, the coming days will serve as a crucial test of its readiness to handle both the expected and the unexpected as climate variability continues to reshape the contours of urban life.
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