Maharashtra monsoon withdrawal has been declared by the India Meteorological Department, with 21 districts recording deficit rainfall and Mumbai expected to remain unusually warm for the next week. The announcement came on Saturday afternoon, earlier than the state’s usual withdrawal window of October 7 to 10.
The IMD said districts including Nagpur, Chandrapur, Hingoli, Beed and Dharashiv recorded deficient rainfall during the monsoon season. Mumbai city and suburban divisions, Thane, Pune, Raigad and Ratnagiri recorded rainfall within the normal range, while Nashik and Palghar reported surplus rainfall.
Between June 1 and September 30, Maharashtra received 804.4 mm of average rainfall against a seasonal average of 994.5 mm, according to IMD figures cited by The Indian Express. This represented a 19 per cent shortfall. However, the state has not been classified as having a deficit monsoon because the IMD threshold for that classification is a shortfall of 20 per cent or more.
“As per IMD’s definition, we can declare the rainfall season as deficit only if the shortfall is equal to or more than 20 per cent. Since the state’s shortfall this year stands at 19 per cent, we cannot declare a rain-deficit season for Maharashtra even though the actual rainfall figures are less than the average quota of rain,” Sushma Nair, a scientist at IMD Mumbai, told The Indian Express.
The withdrawal was declared earlier than in the previous two years. In 2025, the monsoon withdrawal was announced on October 11, while in 2024 it took place on October 15. In 2023, a year also affected by El Niño, withdrawal was declared on October 6. The report attributed this year’s inadequate rainfall to an intensifying El Niño climatic pattern.
Rainfall was unevenly distributed across neighbouring districts. Nashik and Palghar recorded excess rainfall, while Ahilya Nagar and Sholapur reported deficient rainfall. The variation was also visible in Mumbai’s two principal observatories. Santacruz recorded a 29 per cent deficit in June, excess rainfall of more than 55 per cent in July, and deficits of 35 per cent and 49 per cent in August and September. Across the season, it recorded 2,530.5 mm, nine per cent above its seasonal average of 2,318.8 mm.
Colaba recorded an 18 per cent shortfall in June and 50 per cent surplus rainfall in July. The report said the observatory subsequently recorded deficits of 188 per cent and 101 per cent in August and September. Its seasonal total was 1,957.1 mm, seven per cent below the average of 2,102 mm.
“This year the rainfall pattern had remained disproportionate, as a result of which Mumbai recorded massive rainfall in July, which largely made up for the season’s quota. As a result, the overall number shows that Mumbai recorded excess rainfall despite recording a shortfall in 3 out of the 4 monsoon months,” Nair said.
The IMD has also warned of warmer conditions in Mumbai over the coming week. The weather bureau placed the city under a yellow alert for excess heat over the weekend, with temperatures expected to remain around 35 degrees Celsius for the next week. The withdrawal announcement marks the end of the southwest monsoon season, while the IMD’s heat advisory remains in effect for Mumbai and surrounding areas.
