Maharashtra is unlikely to receive significant rainfall from a developing Bay of Bengal system that the India Meteorological Department expects to intensify into a cyclone by Monday morning, although peripheral areas of the state could see some influence depending on the system’s eventual track and intensity.
The system is currently a well-marked low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. In its latest update, the IMD said it was likely to intensify into a depression on Saturday, a deep depression on Sunday and a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by Monday morning.
The system is expected to move west-northwestwards and reach the west-central Bay of Bengal near the Andhra Pradesh coast around the morning of October 28, according to the IMD. Its projected movement places Andhra Pradesh at the centre of the immediate weather threat, with possible effects extending inland after landfall.
GP Sharma, president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather, said Maharashtra’s exposure was expected to remain limited. He said any impact would likely be restricted to peripheral areas, particularly parts of Vidarbha adjoining Chhattisgarh and Telangana.
“Maharashtra will, if at all, have very limited impact. That too, the peripheral areas, perhaps parts of Vidarbha adjoining Chhattisgarh and Telangana,” Sharma said. He added that it was too early to determine the system’s exact track or assess its final impact because both would depend on its movement and intensity.
According to Sharma, the system is likely to make landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast before moving inland and weakening. Its influence could then extend into Telangana, Chhattisgarh and adjoining parts of Vidarbha. The IMD has not so far forecast rainfall over Maharashtra in connection with the system.
The forecast means the system is not currently expected to provide widespread rain across Maharashtra or end the state’s prolonged dry spell. Sharma said there had been no recovery in Maharashtra’s rainfall situation and that the eventual outcome would depend on the cyclone’s landfall point and track. For Maharashtra’s cities and districts, the next relevant milestone is the IMD’s assessment as the system strengthens and its movement becomes clearer.
