Kerala rain is expected to intensify in parts of the state from November 1 to 3, with the India Meteorological Department warning of isolated heavy showers, thunderstorms and winds reaching 30–40 kmph as a low-pressure area over the southern Andaman Sea moves towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.
The weather system is currently located over the southern Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It is expected to move west-northwestwards and strengthen into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal and nearby areas by October 31, according to the weather department bulletin reported by Malayala Manorama.
The system is then likely to move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast over the following two days. The department has forecast isolated heavy rainfall in Kerala between November 1 and 3, with rainfall of 7 to 11 centimetres possible in some locations over a 24-hour period.
A yellow alert has been issued for seven districts across the three-day period. On November 1, the alert applies to Pathanamthitta, Kottayam and Idukki. On November 2, Idukki, Palakkad, Malappuram and Wayanad are under the alert. On November 3, the warning covers Kozhikode, Wayanad and Kannur.
The forecast is for isolated heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds. The India Meteorological Department defines heavy rainfall in this warning range as 64.5 millimetres to 115.5 millimetres in 24 hours. The warning does not indicate that all areas within the listed districts will receive heavy rain, but identifies locations where intense weather is possible.
For Kerala’s towns and cities, short-duration heavy rain can affect road movement, drainage systems, power infrastructure and outdoor construction work even when rainfall is geographically limited. Thunderstorms and gusty winds can also create localised risks from unsecured materials, trees and temporary structures. The district-wise alert therefore provides local administrations and residents with a time window for preparedness rather than a uniform forecast for the entire state.
The weather department has also identified another system associated with the remnants of severe cyclonic storm Arnabi. That system is positioned as a low-pressure area over northern Chhattisgarh and adjoining eastern Madhya Pradesh. The bulletin did not specify a direct impact from this system on the Kerala district alerts.
The current five-day forecast and district-level warnings will remain relevant as the Andaman Sea system develops and its track becomes clearer. The next specified alert period begins on November 1, with the first warnings covering Pathanamthitta, Kottayam and Idukki.
