Pune could see the southwest monsoon withdraw earlier than usual as dry air enters Maharashtra and rainfall activity remains subdued, with the India Meteorological Department indicating that withdrawal from the state may begin within the next 24 to 48 hours.
The timing would be close to Maharashtra’s normal monsoon withdrawal commencement around October 4-5. Pune’s normal withdrawal window is later, around October 9-10, but the city may experience an early exit if dry conditions persist, IMD officials told the Times of India.
“There is no rain forecast for Pune from Friday,” an IMD official said. The department’s Pune forecast indicated mainly cloudy conditions initially, followed by partly cloudy skies and only a low likelihood of light rain. Officials said greater clarity on Pune’s withdrawal would emerge as the region approaches its normal withdrawal window.
The IMD uses more than a single dry day to declare the retreat of the monsoon. IMD scientist SD Sanap said rainfall must remain absent for consecutive days, while the prevailing southwesterly monsoon winds must weaken or reverse. “The main thing is rainfall. It should not rain for consecutive two to three days,” Sanap said.
An anticyclonic circulation over Rajasthan and adjoining areas is currently helping push dry air into Maharashtra. Sanap said the outflow from this circulation was causing dry-air intrusion over parts of the state and indicated that weather conditions across much of Maharashtra were likely to remain dry.
Rainfall conditions over north Madhya Maharashtra during the next 24 to 48 hours will be important in determining whether the withdrawal process begins, officials said. At present, the IMD has found no indication of a broad rainfall revival in parts of the state, allowing the possibility of withdrawal to remain open.
The emerging transition follows a prolonged lack of sustained moisture over Maharashtra during August and September. Independent weather expert Abhijit Modak attributed the subdued rainfall activity during those months to the movement of Bay of Bengal systems along tracks that did not support sustained moisture transport into the state.
Modak said September climatology often brings one or two lower-latitude Bay of Bengal systems westward from Andhra Pradesh and Telangana towards Marathwada, Nashik and north Konkan. Such systems can carry moisture into Maharashtra. This year, however, a system around September 10 moved from Odisha towards Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, while another system that intensified after affecting Andhra Pradesh and Telangana curved northwards towards Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh instead of continuing westward into Maharashtra.
For Pune, the immediate forecast is therefore one of mostly dry weather, although the IMD has not yet formally declared the monsoon withdrawn from the city. The department’s assessment over the next two to three days, including rainfall and wind conditions, will determine whether the early-exit possibility becomes an official withdrawal.
