Maharashtra is expected to begin seeing the Southwest Monsoon withdraw around October 5, with the system likely to have left most of the state by October 10, even as the state faces a 17 per cent rainfall deficit, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The development comes after an uneven monsoon season, with several districts recording substantial shortfalls despite pockets of normal or excess rainfall.
Between June 1 and September 22, Maharashtra normally receives 953.2 mm of rain. This year, the state recorded 787.2 mm during the same period. The country as a whole recorded rainfall 15 per cent below normal, according to the report.
The deficit has been particularly pronounced in several districts. Ahilyanagar recorded a 42 per cent departure from normal rainfall, while Sangli reported a 24 per cent deficit. Solapur’s rainfall was 57 per cent below normal and Nandurbar recorded a 34 per cent shortfall. The figures indicate that the state-wide deficit has been driven by sharp regional variations rather than a uniform absence of rain across Maharashtra.
Pune has also experienced a prolonged dry spell in September. The district recorded an 82 per cent weekly rainfall deficit between September 10 and 16, although its seasonal cumulative rainfall remained 20 per cent above normal. Satara recorded a 92 per cent weekly deficit during the same period, but its cumulative rainfall was still 25 per cent above normal. In Kolhapur, rainfall during the week was 97 per cent below normal, while cumulative rainfall was 11 per cent below normal, placing the district in the normal rainfall category.
The contrast between weekly and seasonal rainfall highlights the uneven distribution of rain across the state. Districts can remain above or near seasonal norms despite receiving very little rain during individual weeks, while prolonged dry spells can still affect local water availability, farming activity and the management of urban water systems.
The IMD has forecast thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds on September 23 in Pune, the Pune Ghats, Nashik and its Ghats, Ahilyanagar, Kolhapur and its Ghats, Satara, the Satara Ghats, Solapur and Sangli. In Pune, however, the recent thunderstorms have not produced a significant impact on rainfall.
A weather expert from Vagaries of the Weather said Shivajinagar had gone around 52 days without recording double-digit 24-hour rainfall. Based on data since 2014, the expert said this was the second-longest such streak during the monsoon season. The longest occurred in 2018, when Shivajinagar went 64 consecutive days without double-digit daily rainfall.
Shivajinagar recorded 706 mm of seasonal rainfall this year, according to the expert cited in the report. The next major weather milestone for Maharashtra will be the expected onset of monsoon withdrawal around October 5, followed by its likely departure from most of the state by October 10.
