Maharashtra’s monsoon deficit has remained at 16% as the India southwest monsoon is expected to begin withdrawing from western Rajasthan on September 19, while most parts of the state are forecast to receive only light to moderate rain over the next few days, according to the weather department.
The forecast comes after a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal influenced weather across several parts of Maharashtra during the past two to three days. The system brought thunderstorms and rainfall to parts of Marathwada, Vidarbha, north-central Maharashtra and central Maharashtra, offering some relief in districts that had received below-normal rainfall.
The weather system is currently active over southeast Rajasthan, adjoining Gujarat and parts of southwest Madhya Pradesh. Rainfall was strongest in northern parts of Maharashtra in recent days, but the report said the improvement has not removed the state’s overall rainfall deficit.
The weather department has forecast light to moderate showers in most parts of Maharashtra over the coming days. With the stronger spell of rain easing, a rise in humidity has been observed in several areas. Maximum temperatures across the state are also expected to increase by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius over the next five days, according to the forecast issued on Tuesday.
The anticipated withdrawal from western Rajasthan would mark the beginning of the monsoon’s retreat from India. The withdrawal generally starts around September 17 and is completed across the country by October 15. Last year, the retreat began on September 14.
The timing of the withdrawal is important for Maharashtra because the state’s rainfall performance has been uneven across regions. The latest report placed the national rainfall deficit at 15%, slightly below Maharashtra’s 16% shortfall. Recent rainfall in selected districts has improved local conditions, but the state-level deficit remains significant because the rain has not been evenly distributed or sustained across the season.
For cities and towns, the forecast points to a shift from short periods of intense rainfall to warmer and more humid conditions. A faster end to widespread rainfall could also affect the replenishment of local water sources, depending on reservoir levels and the distribution of rainfall across catchments. The supplied report does not provide updated reservoir storage figures or district-wise water availability data.
Weather experts cited in the report have warned that a prolonged absence of widespread rain could deepen drought conditions in Maharashtra. The immediate forecast, however, is for light to moderate showers in many areas, rising temperatures and the possible start of the southwest monsoon’s retreat from western Rajasthan on September 19.
