India’s air travel growth forecast has been raised to 9.3% for the next two decades, making the country the fastest-growing domestic aviation market in the Asia-Pacific region and creating demand for 3,480 new passenger aircraft by 2045, according to Airbus’ latest 2026-2045 market forecast.
The revised forecast, reported by Reuters and cited by The Economic Times, is up from Airbus’ earlier projection of 8.9%. The outlook places India’s aviation expansion well ahead of China, for which Airbus has cut its domestic traffic growth forecast to 4.7% from 5.4%.
Airbus expects India to require 3,480 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years. The projected fleet requirement will support the continued expansion of domestic air services as airlines respond to rising passenger demand and seek to add capacity across established and emerging routes.
The forecast has implications beyond airline fleet planning. Sustained air travel growth will require airports, terminals, runways, air traffic systems, maintenance facilities and surface transport links to expand in parallel. The report did not provide a corresponding estimate for the airport infrastructure or urban transport investment that India’s projected aircraft demand would require.
Airbus’ regional forecast shows the scale of the wider Asia-Pacific aviation market. The region is expected to account for about 45% of the roughly 42,000 new aircraft needed globally over the next two decades. China is projected to require 8,830 new passenger aircraft, while the rest of the Asia-Pacific region is expected to need another 6,880.
The difference between India’s and China’s growth forecasts reflects a changing balance within the region’s aviation market. India’s domestic traffic projection has been revised upwards even as China’s estimate has been reduced. Airbus continues to identify China as its largest commercial aircraft market, but the latest figures give India a stronger position in future growth rates.
Francois Cabaret, Airbus’ head of global market forecast, said Chinese airlines also faced a significant requirement to renew their fleets. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Chinese airlines were receiving around 400 aircraft a year. Since then, combined deliveries by Airbus, Boeing and Chinese aircraft maker COMAC have fallen to less than half that level, Cabaret said, according to Reuters.
Airbus said demand for aircraft and deliveries had remained resilient despite geopolitical tensions and supply-chain challenges. Anand Stanley, president of Airbus Asia-Pacific, said airlines continued to show readiness to take deliveries, with strong demand and increased deliveries being recorded across the Asia-Pacific and Middle East markets.
For India, the forecast comes as airlines prepare for a long period of passenger growth. The projected requirement for 3,480 aircraft will place greater importance on the ability of airports and supporting urban systems to absorb additional flights, passengers and employees. It also raises the significance of coordination between airline expansion, airport construction and road and rail connectivity to aviation hubs.
Airbus’ next steps will be reflected through its longer-term market forecast and aircraft delivery outlook. The current projection covers the 2026-2045 period and identifies India’s 9.3% domestic air traffic growth estimate and 3,480-aircraft requirement as the central indicators of the country’s aviation expansion.
