Delhi-NCR is unlikely to get relief from air pollution this week as slow winds and limited weather activity are expected to keep pollutants trapped near the ground, with the Air Quality Index potentially rising above 400 in the national capital.
Delhi recorded an average AQI of 376 on Sunday, making this the most polluted Diwali in the city in the past five years, according to the Central Pollution Control Board. The average AQI showed a marginal improvement on Monday morning but remained in the very poor category at 371.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast the arrival of a western disturbance over the north-western Himalayan region from the night of November 10. Its impact is expected to bring rain to parts of Jammu and Kashmir on November 10-11 and November 14-15, while Himachal Pradesh may receive rain in isolated areas between November 10 and 15. Winds of 30-40 kmph are also possible in parts of the two states during this period.
Uttarakhand may receive rain in isolated areas on November 12 and 13, while Punjab could see scattered rain between November 12 and 15. However, the weather system is not expected to produce significant rainfall in Delhi-NCR. The IMD has forecast partly cloudy conditions in the region between November 10 and 15, but no rain is expected in Delhi or neighbouring areas during the week.
The absence of rain and weak surface winds are important for the capital’s air quality because they limit the movement and dispersal of particulate pollution. According to the air quality early warning system developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, wind speeds in Delhi-NCR are expected to generally remain below 10 kmph through the week.
The forecast indicates particularly weak winds during the morning and evening. Wind speeds in Delhi could remain as low as 5 kmph on November 10 and 11 and again from November 13 to 15. Morning wind speeds are also expected to remain around 5 kmph between November 12 and 15.
The weather department has forecast light to moderate fog in Delhi and other parts of the National Capital Region during the morning hours between November 10 and 15. Fog, low wind speeds and the absence of rain are expected to slow the dispersal of pollutants, leaving residents exposed to persistently poor air quality.
The IITM-linked early warning system has indicated that Delhi’s AQI could cross 400 during the week, which would place it in the severe category. The forecast covers Delhi as well as the wider NCR, where pollution levels are influenced by regional weather conditions and the movement of air across adjoining areas.
The next significant weather-related developments for the region will be the western disturbance’s impact on north-western India from November 10 and the corresponding air-quality forecasts issued for Delhi-NCR through November 15.
