Ahmedabad, are experiencing longer and more intense heatwaves, parts of the eastern region, including Patna and Varanasi, are witnessing a decrease in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events.
This disparity has raised serious concerns about the future of climate resilience in India, particularly in the face of shifting global weather patterns. Researchers attribute this dramatic change to the Atlantic Nino, a climate phenomenon that is altering atmospheric circulation patterns over India. Unlike the more commonly known El Nino in the Pacific, the Atlantic Nino influences the weather by reversing the typical cross-equatorial wind flow from the northern Indian Ocean to Southeast Asia. This shift disrupts the usual monsoon patterns, resulting in drier conditions in some areas and excessive heat in others, particularly in the western regions of India.
According to the findings, Ahmedabad is facing a sharp rise in the probability of heatwaves, with a 67.5% higher chance of experiencing four-day heatwaves compared to the period between 1961 and 1990. Additionally, the likelihood of six-day heatwaves in the city has increased by 59%. The study found that the average temperature during a seven-day heatwave has risen slightly, from 42.5°C between 1961 and 1990 to 42.8°C in the period between 1991 and 2023. In stark contrast, Varanasi, located in the eastern part of India, has seen a cooling trend, with similar heatwaves becoming less intense, dropping from 44.3°C to 43.4°C. The study, which utilised temperature data from the Indian Meteorological Department and was presented at the EGU General Assembly 2025, highlights the complexities of how climate change is affecting regional weather patterns. The stark divide between the two regions shows that while some parts of India are facing escalating heat stress, others are experiencing a relative cooling trend.
The implications of this research are vast, particularly for urban areas in western India that are already grappling with rising temperatures and the associated impacts on public health, water resources, and agriculture. As cities like Ahmedabad brace for more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, the need for sustainable urban planning, including the expansion of green spaces, cooling technologies, and climate-resilient infrastructure, has never been more urgent. For eastern cities such as Patna, which have seen a decrease in heatwave frequency by 78% over the same period, the focus may need to shift towards understanding the broader impacts of the Atlantic Nino and how this cooling trend could be harnessed to mitigate the effects of global warming.
The Atlantic Nino’s influence on India’s weather systems is an emerging area of study that requires further exploration. As climate change continues to alter atmospheric patterns globally, regions like western India are likely to face even more severe climate extremes, further underlining the need for a coordinated approach to climate adaptation and mitigation across the country. This new data is a call to action for governments, urban planners, and communities alike to prepare for a future where regional climate disparities could play a critical role in shaping daily life and policy decisions.
Western India Faces Rising Heatwaves While East Cools Down
