India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reiterated its April forecast, predicting ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall across India for the June-September season. This prediction, which includes a 61% probability of above-normal rainfall, is particularly encouraging for the country’s monsoon core zone—critical for rain-fed agriculture—signalling positive economic prospects.
Despite this optimistic outlook, northwestern India will face persistent heatwaves in June. IMD anticipates a minimum of four to six days of heatwave conditions, even as temporary relief is expected due to western disturbances. Other regions will also experience normal to above-normal temperatures, both maximum and minimum, throughout the month. The onset of the monsoon over Kerala is projected to occur within the next five days, aligning with the typical start date of June 1. However, there remains a possibility of a subdued progression towards northwest India, potentially even witnessing the monsoon reach northeast India prior to Kerala—a rare meteorological event.
Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon rainfall for the entire country is predicted to be 106% of the long period average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4%. Central and southern peninsular regions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, whereas northwest India is likely to experience normal precipitation levels. However, northeast India and parts of eastern central India, including Odisha, south West Bengal, and Jharkhand, might face below-normal rainfall.
Encouragingly, the monsoon core zone, encompassing key rain-fed agricultural areas, is forecasted to receive above-normal rainfall. This will enhance Kharif (summer sown) crop production and ensure adequate soil moisture for Rabi (winter sown) crops, potentially boosting foodgrain output and stimulating rural demand and the overall economy in the fiscal year 2024-25.
In terms of heatwave projections, northwest and central India are expected to experience increased heatwave days in June. Typically, these regions encounter two to three heatwave days during this period, but this year, the count is anticipated to rise to four to six days. The IMD’s long-range monsoon forecast underscores the crucial distribution of rainfall across regions for effective agricultural operations. The predicted above-normal rainfall in the monsoon core zone is expected to significantly support farming activities, thus bolstering both Kharif and Rabi crop yields. This development is poised to have a ripple effect, enhancing food production and driving economic growth.
In summary, while the country can look forward to a robust monsoon season aiding agricultural productivity, northwestern India must brace for heightened heatwave activity in June, necessitating vigilant preparedness to mitigate the impact on public health and agriculture.
