The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released forecasts indicating the impending arrival of the southwest monsoon in the south Andaman Sea, specific regions of the southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands by May 19.
IMD officials have highlighted favourable atmospheric conditions conducive to the monsoon’s early onset in these areas. An IMD official stated to the media, “This aligns with the near-normal onset date for the region, with Port Blair usually experiencing monsoon onset around May 20. Favourable conditions, including strengthening south-westerly winds and heightened rainfall activity, are expected to facilitate the monsoon’s advancement into the region by May 19.”
Furthermore, the official elaborated, “The normal advancement date into this region is around May 22. So, this time, it may be slightly earlier than that. There is some kind of convection developing over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal. This is associated with a cyclonic circulation in lower levels, increasing the chances of convection over the region. Winds are also becoming more south-westerly. Hence, conditions are favourable for monsoon advance over the south Andaman Sea, certain areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands around May 19.”
However, it is noteworthy that the anticipated early onset of the monsoon in the Andamans does not necessarily imply an early arrival in Kerala, where the normal onset date is June 1. IMD’s declaration of the monsoon onset in Kerala is based on multiple meteorological parameters, including rainfall, wind speed, direction, depth, and convection.
IMD follows stringent criteria, declaring the onset of the monsoon only if at least 60% of the 14 designated meteorological stations in Kerala and Lakshadweep record a minimum of 2.5mm of rain for two consecutive days after May 10. As the country braces for the arrival of the southwest monsoon, IMD continues to monitor atmospheric conditions closely, providing vital information to support preparedness efforts across regions susceptible to monsoon impacts.
