Gujarat rain forecast indicates scattered showers on 19 October in parts of South Gujarat, Saurashtra and adjoining Union territories, even as Ahmedabad and several other parts of the state continue to experience unusually high October temperatures. The weather department has said there is unlikely to be any significant change in temperatures across Gujarat over the next seven days.
According to the forecast, Navsari, Valsad, Bhavnagar and Amreli may receive scattered rainfall on 19 October. The possibility also extends to the Union territories of Diu, Daman and Dadra and Nagar Haveli. The forecast comes after the monsoon has largely withdrawn from Gujarat and residents have continued to experience summer-like heat during October.
The forecast is for isolated or scattered showers rather than widespread rainfall across the state. The report does not indicate that the rain will bring a broad change in Gujarat’s prevailing weather pattern. Temperatures are expected to remain largely stable during the coming week, with the weather department predicting no major variation.
Ahmedabad has been among the cities experiencing the most pronounced heat. The city recorded a maximum temperature of 38.5 degrees Celsius in October, the highest level reported there in the past nine years, according to the report. The city’s maximum temperature had reached 39.4 degrees Celsius in October 2017, while 38.4 degrees Celsius was recorded in October 2024.
This year’s temperatures in the state have generally been 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal, the report said. Ahmedabad’s maximum temperature was expected to remain around 39 degrees Celsius on 14 October. The combination of high daytime temperatures and intermittent post-monsoon showers could result in sharply different conditions between districts, with some areas facing heat while others receive short spells of rain.
The weather update also comes against a backdrop of below-normal seasonal rainfall in Gujarat. The state has received 89.19 per cent of its average seasonal rainfall so far this year, according to the figures cited in the report. That shortfall has not affected all water bodies equally.
The Narmada reservoir has recorded 99.83 per cent storage, while the other 206 dams in the state together have recorded about 70 per cent storage. Only 21 dams are reported to be full. At the same time, 79 dams have less than 25 per cent storage as of the date of the report.
The uneven storage position means that rainfall distribution remains important for local water availability, even where the state-level total appears relatively close to the seasonal average. The latest forecast identifies specific districts for possible rainfall but does not indicate a widespread replenishment event. Residents and local authorities in the listed areas will be watching the weather department’s subsequent updates ahead of 19 October.
