Gaya has witnessed a sharp 58 percent decline in its agricultural land over the last two decades, underscoring the unsustainable trajectory of its urban expansion.
The data, published in a recent academic study from the Central University of South Bihar (CUSB), flags critical long-term implications for food security, environmental equilibrium, and land use policy in one of the state’s historically significant cities. According to the study led by economist Dr Firdaus Fatima Rizwi in collaboration with researchers Alok Kumar Dubey and Akash Tiwari, Gaya’s agricultural land has shrunk from 1,908 hectares in 2000 to just 810 hectares in 2022. Using satellite data and advanced remote sensing tools alongside the CA-Markov model, the research provides a projection that should concern policymakers — by 2030, this figure could plummet to a mere 657 hectares if urbanisation continues at the current pace.
While Gaya’s skyline has rapidly evolved, the expansion of its built-up area has surged in parallel, growing from 1,543 hectares in 2000 to 2,560 hectares in 2022. This urban sprawl — largely unregulated — is projected to reach 2,580 hectares by the end of this decade. As agricultural land makes way for housing, commercial zones, and industrial spaces, the very foundation of the local food economy is being eroded, leaving communities more dependent on imports and vulnerable to price shocks. Interestingly, amid this transition, the city has recorded a notable increase in forest cover, expanding from 255 hectares in 2000 to 694 hectares in 2022, expected to reach 726 hectares by 2030. Officials attribute this to targeted afforestation and water conservation schemes implemented in recent years. However, the gain in green spaces has come at the cost of water bodies, which have declined by more than 16 percent — a statistic that casts a shadow over the region’s water security and its preparedness to face erratic monsoons brought on by climate change.
Equally worrying is the anticipated rebound in barren land. While such land declined from 913 hectares in 2000 to 580 hectares in 2022, climate unpredictability and inconsistent rainfall patterns are likely to push that number upwards again by 2030. This signals that while urban development accelerates, ecological resilience may be weakening in the absence of integrated land use planning. The report makes a strong case for urgent governmental intervention to curb unplanned growth and protect what remains of Gaya’s agricultural base. It recommends stringent enforcement of land use regulations and zoning policies to ensure the preservation of farmlands and water ecosystems — pillars that support the city’s food systems and environmental health.
With the CA-Markov model forecasting significant changes in Gaya’s land composition within the next five years, experts warn that without a shift in urban governance, the city risks losing not just its agrarian legacy but also its ecological safety net. The current trajectory may promise short-term urban gains, but the long-term costs — to food security, sustainability, and socio-economic equity — could prove far steeper than anticipated.
Gaya loses farmland as city expands
