KOLKATA – The Bay of Bengal has increasingly become a hotspot for cyclones, with meteorologists attributing this trend to unusually warm sea surface temperatures. Currently, temperatures in the northeast and northwest Bay of Bengal hover around 32°C-33°C, which is 3°C-4°C above the norm.
This significant temperature anomaly has created favourable conditions for the rapid development of cyclones, including the latest, Cyclone Remal. Cyclone Remal, which formed and intensified quickly, is expected to make landfall on Sunday. Despite the prediction of its landfall, determining its precise impact remains challenging. The swift intensification of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal has been a pronounced trend in recent years, raising concerns about the region’s vulnerability.
A study conducted by the Council of Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), a policy think tank, highlights the high exposure of eastern Indian districts to cyclonic impacts. In response to this increased threat, the government has enhanced local adaptive capacities through initiatives such as the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP). This project ensures 100% access to early warning systems for populations in vulnerable areas, significantly improving preparedness.
West Bengal, in particular, has demonstrated strong adaptive capacity against cyclones. The state’s implementation of the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (EWS) under NCRMP Phase II has been pivotal. Furthermore, West Bengal’s high teledensity facilitates the widespread dissemination of early warnings via telephone and mobile networks, significantly boosting the effectiveness of preparedness and response efforts, according to Vishwas Chitale, Senior Programme Lead at CEEW.
Historical data underscores the Bay of Bengal’s predisposition to cyclones. Approximately 58% of cyclones formed in this region make landfall on India’s eastern coast, a stark contrast to the 25% that impact the Arabian Sea. The Bay of Bengal is also associated with 80% of the world’s cyclone-related fatalities, highlighting the severe human cost of these natural disasters.
Several factors contribute to the lower frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea. These include its narrower and deeper geography, cooler water temperatures, higher salinity, and partially landlocked nature. These conditions collectively reduce cyclonic activity in the region.
The rising incidence of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal necessitates ongoing vigilance and continued investment in adaptive and mitigation strategies. As sea surface temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, the region’s preparedness and resilience will be increasingly critical in safeguarding lives and infrastructure.
