Maharashtra climate change is no longer visible only through isolated heatwaves, heavy rainfall events or failed monsoons. A 70-year analysis by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, shows that the state’s interior and coast are moving in different climatic directions: Marathwada and west Vidarbha have shifted into a hotter, drier climate zone, while the tropical monsoon zone has expanded along the Konkan coast.
Published in the IMD’s peer-reviewed journal MAUSAM in October 2026, the study compares climate-zone maps for two successive 30-year periods, 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. It uses IMD gridded rainfall data and maximum and minimum temperature records from 1951 to 2020, applying the Köppen–Geiger climate classification system. The maps are based on 30-year averages updated every decade, making the study a measure of long-term climatic conditions rather than a description of one unusual season.
That distinction is important because Maharashtra is currently facing a deficient monsoon. Drought was declared in 265 of the state’s 358 talukas on September 26, while seasonal rainfall was 19% below normal, compared with a national deficit of 12.6%. The year was also marked by El Niño conditions, which tend to weaken the southwest monsoon. The study does not claim that the long-term climate-zone shift caused this year’s drought. It shows instead that a seasonal rainfall failure is now occurring against a different climatic background in parts of the state.
The most consequential change is in Maharashtra’s interior. Marathwada and west Vidarbha, which largely fell within the tropical savannah zone during 1961–1990, had moved into the hot semi-arid zone by 1991–2020. The researchers attribute the transition mainly to increases in daytime and night-time temperatures.
The two climate zones carry different implications for how land and water are managed. The tropical savannah zone has a long dry season, while the hot semi-arid zone is defined by higher temperatures and lower rainfall. In practical terms, the shift can influence crop suitability, sowing windows and irrigation requirements. It also changes the conditions under which water managers and local administrations plan for drought, heat and seasonal demand.
Ananya Karmakar of IMD Pune, the study’s lead author, said the current drought and the long-term shift should not be treated as the same phenomenon. “This year’s drought in Marathwada and Vidarbha is an El Niño drought, and our study does not look at individual seasons,” she said. “But it does show that Marathwada and west Vidarbha now lie in a hotter, drier climate zone than they did in the 1960s. A failed monsoon like this one lands on a climate that has itself shifted, so water and farm planning in the region has to account for that.”
The evidence complicates the way climate risk is often described at the scale of a state or a broad region. The study notes that the hot semi-arid zone contracted slightly across central India as a whole. That aggregate pattern does not capture the change identified in Maharashtra’s interior. The state-level shift becomes visible only through detailed climate maps, demonstrating how regional averages can conceal substantial local differences.
The contrast with the western coast is equally significant. The tropical monsoon zone, characterised by heavy seasonal rainfall, has expanded across the Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala. The broader study identifies increasing rainfall over southern India even as rainfall has declined over the northern plains. Maharashtra therefore cannot be treated as a single climate-management unit: its interior is becoming hotter and drier, while its coastal belt is part of a wetter long-term zone.
This does not mean that every year on the Konkan coast will be wet or that every interior season will be dry. The west coast itself experienced a deficient monsoon in the year covered by the report. Goa recorded a rainfall shortfall of 34%, while Kerala and coastal Karnataka were 28% below normal, according to data cited in the study note. Long-term climate classification describes the underlying pattern; it does not remove seasonal variability.
For governance, the central issue is therefore not simply whether Maharashtra receives more or less rain in a particular year. It is whether agricultural, water and weather-advisory systems are calibrated to the conditions of each region. The study’s findings point towards region-specific planning because the same rainfall policy, crop calendar or advisory framework may not be equally suitable for the interior and the coast.
The institutional responsibilities are spread across several levels. The IMD produces weather observations, climate assessments and advisories. State and local authorities manage drought responses, water conservation measures and agricultural coordination. Farmers make decisions on crops, sowing and irrigation under conditions shaped by both seasonal forecasts and longer-term changes. The study calls for climate-zone shifts to be closely monitored and integrated into long-term agricultural planning, while IMD Director-General of Meteorology and co-author Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the contrasting changes should be incorporated into weather advisories for farmers.
The numbers in the report also show why a single drought declaration cannot fully describe the state’s climate risk. The drought affected 265 of 358 talukas, while the seasonal rainfall deficit was 19%. Those figures capture the immediate administrative and meteorological stress. The climate-zone comparison adds a longer time scale: areas that were classified as tropical savannah in the earlier 30-year period had entered the hot semi-arid category in the later one. Together, the two sets of evidence describe both the shock of a failed monsoon and the changing conditions in which that shock is absorbed.
The agricultural consequences identified by the researchers are not limited to the volume of rainfall. Higher daytime and night-time temperatures can alter crop suitability and increase irrigation requirements even when rainfall totals appear adequate over a season. A change in the timing of rainfall can also affect sowing windows. The supplied study does not quantify crop losses or identify individual crops most exposed to the transition, so those impacts remain outside what its evidence establishes.
The same caution applies to urban and infrastructure planning. The study directly discusses farmers, water managers and policymakers, and it calls for stronger heat and drought resilience and water conservation in the interior. It does not provide a city-by-city assessment of water systems, drainage networks or heat-related health impacts. However, its regional findings establish that planning assumptions based on historic climate zones may need to be examined as the underlying averages change.
The broader urban question is how institutions translate climate maps into operating decisions. A climate classification is not itself a drought plan, crop advisory or water allocation rule. Its value lies in identifying where long-term conditions are changing and where existing planning systems may be relying on outdated baselines. In Maharashtra, the study’s strongest message is that the interior and the coast cannot be managed through a single undifferentiated climate strategy.
The IMD-IITM research confirms a long-term transition in Maharashtra’s interior from tropical savannah to hot semi-arid conditions between the two 30-year periods, alongside an expansion of the tropical monsoon zone along the west coast. It also makes clear that this shift does not, by itself, explain the current drought. The developments to monitor are the integration of these climate maps into agricultural planning and farmer advisories, along with continued observation of regional rainfall and temperature patterns.
