The southwest monsoon is likely to withdraw from the entire country around October 15, potentially making 2026 one of the years with the earliest monsoon exits in recent times, even as the northeast monsoon begins over southern India, according to the India Meteorological Department and Skymet Weather Services.
The IMD’s latest extended-range forecast said conditions were expected to become favourable for the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon between October 15 and 21. During the same period, the northeast monsoon is likely to establish itself over south peninsular India and the east coast.
The transition is expected to bring scattered to fairly widespread rainfall across most parts of peninsular India and the east coast. The IMD also forecast isolated heavy rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Kerala for a few days during the period.
Rainfall is expected to remain above normal over south peninsular India during the forecast period, while northwest, east and northeast India are likely to record below-normal rainfall. The shift in rainfall patterns will affect the distribution of rain across regions that remain dependent on seasonal precipitation for water resources, agriculture and routine civic operations.
GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, said the southwest monsoon could retreat from the south peninsula and the remaining parts of central and eastern India by October 13. The withdrawal from the entire country could then be completed within the following 48 hours, he said.
The monsoon began withdrawing on September 19 and has already exited northern, western and central India. The current withdrawal line passes through Supaul, Ranchi, Sundargarh, Bargarh, Bijapur, Hyderabad, Belagavi and Panaji. Sharma said rainfall activity was continuing over Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha and parts of northeast India, despite the withdrawal being almost complete on the western side.
The official withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is considered complete once the withdrawal line reaches around 15 degrees north latitude over the peninsula and the monsoon flow vacates the remaining parts of the country. Sharma said rainfall over the extreme southern peninsula, below 15 degrees north latitude, could begin before the official onset of the northeast monsoon, as has happened this season.
The withdrawal and onset processes may occur simultaneously or within 48 hours of each other, according to Sharma. He described monsoon withdrawal as a variable process that typically takes four to six weeks but can stall, accelerate or proceed on schedule.
A formal withdrawal declaration around October 15 would match the earliest completion dates recorded over the past decade and a half. The southwest monsoon withdrew on October 15 in 2024, October 16 in 2025 and October 19 in 2023. Between 2011 and 2021, the earliest withdrawal was recorded in 2019, when the process concluded on October 16. Delayed exits occurred on October 28, 2020, and October 25, 2021.
The IMD’s October 15-21 forecast window will determine whether the southwest monsoon completes its withdrawal and how quickly the northeast monsoon becomes established over southern India.
