A low-pressure area is likely to form over the Andaman Sea by October 13 and may intensify into a depression over the southern and adjoining central Bay of Bengal by October 15, the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority said on Friday.
The system is expected to develop under the influence of a surface circulation likely to form over the North Andaman Sea on October 12. APSDMA said the weather system could strengthen after forming, but stressed that considerable uncertainty remains and that greater clarity is expected over the coming days.
The forecast is being issued as Andhra Pradesh also faces the possibility of thunderstorms and rain in several districts. Isolated thunderstorms accompanied by moderate rain are likely in Alluri Sitarama Raju and Polavaram districts on Saturday, according to the authority.
Other coastal districts may receive scattered light rain along with thunderstorms. APSDMA did not provide a forecast of landfall, a specific track or the likely intensity of impacts over Andhra Pradesh in the information available on Friday.
The developing system is being monitored over the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal, where changes in circulation and atmospheric conditions will determine how it evolves. The authority’s warning reflects the early stage of the forecast, with the potential intensification timeline still subject to revision as additional weather information becomes available.
For residents in the districts covered by the immediate thunderstorm advisory, the authority urged vigilance and asked people to follow official weather updates. The advice is particularly relevant during periods of lightning and gusty weather, when outdoor movement and exposure can create safety risks.
The latest update does not establish that the system will make landfall in Andhra Pradesh or that it will cause severe weather in any particular location. APSDMA said people should rely on official updates as the forecast becomes clearer.
The next significant forecast milestones are the expected development of the surface circulation over the North Andaman Sea on October 12, the possible formation of the low-pressure area over the Andaman Sea on October 13, and the potential intensification into a depression by October 15 over the southern and adjoining central Bay of Bengal.
