Odisha may see spells of rain during Durga Puja after the India Meteorological Department indicated that an upper-air cyclonic circulation could form over the north Andaman Sea around October 12 and trigger a fresh low-pressure area over the region the following day.
The system is expected to move into the Bay of Bengal and could intensify into a depression, potentially bringing widespread rainfall to parts of Odisha during the festive period. The forecast comes as the southwest monsoon is expected to begin withdrawing from the state next week.
In its extended-range forecast valid up to October 14, the IMD also identified a low probability of cyclogenesis over the central parts of the south Bay of Bengal and adjoining central Bay of Bengal around October 15. Cyclogenesis refers to the formation of a depression or other organised weather system.
Sanjeev Dwivedi, a scientist at the Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre, said the monsoon withdrawal process was continuing over parts of the country and was expected to begin in Odisha next week. The state is likely to experience dry weather for the next two days, according to the report.
Light to moderate rain is expected at isolated places in some districts over the following three to four days. The possible weather system over the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal could bring a change in conditions later in the month, coinciding with Durga Puja activities across the state.
The IMD has not yet confirmed that the system will develop into a depression. Dwivedi said further confirmation about its possible formation would emerge if the signal continues to appear in medium-range forecasts.
The forecast places the timing of the potential system close to the festival period, when movement, public gatherings and outdoor arrangements typically increase across Odisha. The next medium-range updates will determine whether the weather threat strengthens, changes track or weakens.
