Maharashtra’s monsoon deficit has remained at 16% as the India Meteorological Department expects the southwest monsoon to begin withdrawing from western Rajasthan around 19 September, raising concerns over the state’s rainfall balance and water conditions. The forecast comes as the influence of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal weakens and most parts of Maharashtra are expected to receive only light to moderate showers over the next few days.
The weather department said the impact of stormy rainfall had declined across the state after the low-pressure system affected several regions over the past two to three days. The system brought rainfall to parts of Marathwada, Vidarbha, north-central Maharashtra and central Maharashtra, with the northern districts receiving the strongest rainfall in recent days.
The recent showers offered some relief in districts that had recorded a significant shortfall. However, the rainfall has remained uneven, and the state’s overall deficit has not been erased. Across India, rainfall was reported to be 15% below the normal level for the season, while Maharashtra’s deficit stood at 16%, according to the report.
The low-pressure area is currently active over southeast Rajasthan, adjoining Gujarat and parts of southwest Madhya Pradesh. Its movement and weakening are expected to influence rainfall distribution in the coming days, but the forecast available in the report points to mostly light to moderate showers across Maharashtra rather than a broad spell of heavy rain.
The weather department has also forecast a rise of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius in maximum temperatures across the state during the next five days. The expected increase follows the reduction in rainfall activity and could make conditions more uncomfortable in urban areas, particularly where dense construction, limited tree cover and high humidity intensify heat exposure.
The possible onset of the monsoon’s retreat adds urgency to the remaining rainfall window. The withdrawal normally begins from western Rajasthan around 17 September and is generally completed across India by 15 October. Last year, the retreat began on 14 September. The forecast for this year places the likely start around 19 September, although the timing and progress of withdrawal will depend on subsequent weather conditions.
A prolonged absence of widespread rainfall could deepen drought conditions in parts of Maharashtra, weather researchers cited in the report said. For cities and towns, the rainfall deficit has implications for local water planning, reservoir management and heat preparedness, although the report does not provide district-wise storage data or an assessment of municipal supply systems.
The immediate forecast is therefore mixed: recent storms have improved rainfall in some regions, but the state-wide shortfall remains substantial and the next five days may bring warmer conditions with only light to moderate showers. The weather department’s next updates on rainfall distribution, temperatures and the movement of the monsoon withdrawal will determine whether the deficit narrows before the season ends.
