Telangana is likely to experience warmer-than-usual days through November, while rain, thunderstorms and isolated heavy showers are expected in several districts during the first week, according to the India Meteorological Department’s latest outlook.
The forecast follows an unusually dry October and a substantial seasonal rainfall deficit across the state. Telangana received 628.2 mm of rain between June 1 and October 31, against the normal 830.7 mm, leaving the state 202.5 mm short, or 24 per cent below average, according to TGDPS data.
The IMD’s November outlook, issued on Saturday, predicted above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of Telangana. An IMD scientist told Deccan Chronicle that daytime temperatures are expected to be higher than the usual November average for the region.
The rainfall outlook indicated below-normal rainfall over much of Telangana. The IMD forecast rainfall below 77 per cent of the long-period average for five south peninsular meteorological subdivisions. The long-period average is based on a 50-year rainfall record.
The IMD also said very strong El Nino conditions are likely to continue through November and December, while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected to persist until December. The outlook comes after October appeared to be the weakest rainfall month in the state. A comparison of TGDPS cumulative rainfall figures at the end of September and October suggested that Telangana received approximately 12.7 mm during October, against an estimated normal of 90.1 mm, representing a shortfall of around 86 per cent.
The deficit has been particularly severe in parts of southern Telangana. Jogulamba Gadwal recorded 50 per cent less rainfall than normal, followed by Narayanpet at 44 per cent. Nalgonda and Nagarkurnool were each 42 per cent deficient, while Hanumakonda recorded a 41 per cent shortfall. Hyderabad was 34 per cent below normal and Medchal-Malkajgiri was 39 per cent below normal.
The early-November showers may provide some relief to districts facing large deficits, but the IMD forecast does not indicate that a few days of rain will fully offset the shortfall accumulated since June. Light to moderate rain or thundershowers are expected at isolated places until November 1, with rain likely at many places until November 3. The forecast does not include rainfall that could result from developing weather or cyclone systems.
An isolated heavy rainfall warning has been issued for Adilabad, Komaram Bheem Asifabad, Mancherial, Jagtial, Mahbubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Wanaparthy, Narayanpet and Jogulamba Gadwal on November 2. On November 3, the warning applies to Mahbubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Wanaparthy, Narayanpet and Jogulamba Gadwal.
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph are likely across all districts on November 1 and 4. In districts under the heavy rain warning on November 2 and 3, wind speeds could reach 40-50 kmph. Isolated rain is also forecast on November 5 and 6, although no warnings have been issued for those days.
Hyderabad is likely to see partly cloudy skies, light rain or drizzle and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph until November 4. The IMD has classified the likely impact as very low across all 12 city zones.
