Light to moderate rain is likely in Pune and parts of Maharashtra between September 12 and 15 as a low-pressure area may develop over the Bay of Bengal, weather experts said, potentially affecting Ganesh festival celebrations across the state.
The low-pressure system is expected to form around September 11 and move westwards, according to meteorological models cited by Loksatta. Its possible influence could bring cloudy conditions, light to moderate rain, thunderstorms and lightning during the festival period.
S. D. Sanap, a scientist at the India Meteorological Department’s Pune observatory, said the system developing over the Bay of Bengal could affect rainfall in Maharashtra. “Therefore, at present, there is a possibility of light to moderate rain in Pune and the state between September 12 and 15. However, the exact picture will become clear on September 10,” Sanap said.
The forecast comes ahead of the arrival of Ganesh idols at homes and public mandals across Maharashtra next week. Rain during the period could affect outdoor decorations, processions and other public activities, although the current assessment indicates light to moderate rainfall rather than a continuous spell.
Senior meteorologist Anupam Kashyapi said the latter part of the Ganesh festival could see more rain. Medium-range forecasts indicate the possibility of light rain in some parts of the state between September 13 and 16. Konkan and Vidarbha may receive relatively more widespread light to moderate rainfall during this period, he said.
Kashyapi also said rainfall could increase across Maharashtra for about a week after September 17. The report did not provide a district-wise warning or identify specific locations that could face heavy rainfall during the festival period.
The forecast follows a below-average rainfall spell in Maharashtra during August. The IMD has also forecast below-average rainfall for September, with the report referring to the possible influence of El Niño conditions.
However, rainfall totals vary significantly between the state and Pune district. IMD data for June 1 to September 8 shows that Maharashtra normally receives 872 millimetres of rain during the period. This year, the state recorded 736.4 millimetres, which is 16 per cent below the average.
Pune district recorded a different pattern. Against its normal rainfall of 806 millimetres for the same period, the district received 1,014.6 millimetres, or 26 per cent above average, according to the data cited in the report.
The IMD Pune observatory is expected to provide a clearer assessment of the developing weather system on September 10. The updated forecast will indicate whether the expected rainfall will remain light to moderate or become more widespread during the festival dates.
