India’s strategy of buying discounted Russian crude is facing renewed uncertainty after a US sanctions law created the possibility of tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil. Economic Times, citing unnamed people involved in private discussions, reported that Indian refiners could reduce Russian cargoes for November deliveries and may limit Russian crude to 20% to 30% of total imports in the near term. The report’s central claim has not been confirmed in the supplied material by the Indian government, a named refiner or an official trade document.
The issue is significant because Russian crude has become a major part of India’s import strategy. The world’s third-biggest crude buyer purchased more than half of its imports from Russia in some recent months, according to the report, as refiners sought to manage high prices and disruption in flows from the Middle East. The shift made Russia a critical source of seaborne oil for Indian processors and helped reshape the country’s procurement pattern after changes in global energy trade.
The reported change in buying behaviour would therefore affect more than one commercial contract cycle. It would involve a rebalancing of India’s crude supply at a time when domestic refining capacity is expanding and international markets are under pressure. The report said a new refinery in Rajasthan and expansions at existing plants are pushing India’s purchases towards a record 5.4 million barrels a day.
Economic Times reported that top Indian processors had begun looking more seriously at alternative cargoes over the previous few days. The account was attributed to people involved in discussions that were not public, and they were not named. The report also said New Delhi could continue negotiating with Washington while reducing Russian purchases. These claims require confirmation from the refiners or the government before they can be treated as an established policy decision.
The immediate pressure comes from a US law signed the previous week. According to the report, the legislation allows President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on countries that purchase Russian crude. The measures could be applied within 30 days to goods from major buyers of Russian energy, with rates potentially reaching 100%. The report said India had already faced similar levies last year, although those were later lifted.
The potential tariff exposure creates a difficult calculation for Indian policymakers. Russian oil has been attractive because it has generally offered refiners an alternative to more expensive or constrained supplies from other regions. However, the value of the discount must be weighed against the possibility of punitive trade action affecting Indian exports. The supplied report does not establish whether any new tariffs have been imposed on India or whether Washington has formally notified New Delhi of a specific measure.
India’s Russian oil imports have already eased, according to figures attributed to Kpler in the report. They may average about 1.9 million barrels a day in September, representing more than 35% of total imports and the lowest level since April. The figures indicate a change from the higher shares recorded in some recent months, but they do not by themselves confirm that refiners have adopted a new 20% to 30% ceiling.
Replacing Russian cargoes would also be difficult. The report said the volume supplied by Russia is much larger than the available contribution from countries such as Venezuela or Iran. It cited Argus Media data showing Russian Urals delivered to India at about $133 a barrel at the end of the previous week, while Middle Eastern grades including Oman and Murban were several dollars more expensive.
That price difference matters for a country whose refining system serves a large domestic market and whose energy demand is growing. If refiners shift towards more expensive grades, the effect could appear first in procurement costs and refinery margins. The supplied material does not establish how any additional cost would be passed through to consumers, nor does it quantify the impact on fuel prices, inflation or government finances.
The supply alternatives are also exposed to wider transport risks. The report said Persian Gulf exporters were struggling to restore flows through the Strait of Hormuz while global crude markets remained constrained. It also referred to uncertainty around oil-sea-lane access and discussions involving Iran. These conditions could make substitution more expensive or operationally complex if Indian refiners reduce Russian purchases at the same time that Gulf flows remain under pressure.
The timing of the next procurement cycle adds to the uncertainty. Talks for Russian crude for November delivery would typically begin in the final week of the month, according to the report. That places the next buying cycle within the period in which the US administration could decide whether and how to apply the tariff provisions.
India has adjusted its Russian oil purchases repeatedly over more than a year as Washington changed the level of pressure on the trade, the report said. New Delhi has maintained that its purchasing decisions are primarily driven by the need to secure affordable energy for its population of 1.4 billion. Ajay Srivastava, founder of the New Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative, was quoted as saying that India should continue buying Russian crude as long as it remains competitive and should ignore continuing US tariff threats.
That view reflects the central policy tension: India must secure sufficient and affordable crude while managing the diplomatic and commercial consequences of its supplier choices. The supplied evidence confirms that Russian oil has become an important component of India’s import basket, that September volumes may be lower than in previous months and that a new US law creates a potential tariff risk. It does not confirm that the government has approved a specific reduction target or that refiners have formally decided to cut November purchases.
The next signals will come from the November buying cycle, any formal clarification from Washington, and statements or filings from Indian refiners. Until those emerge, the reported 20% to 30% range should be treated as an indication from unnamed participants in private discussions rather than an announced change in India’s oil-import policy.
