The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that India will experience above-normal rainfall in August and September, with anticipated precipitation around 106 per cent of the long-term average of 422.8 mm.
This forecast indicates a significant increase in rainfall compared to the norm, potentially leading to heightened risks of landslides and floods across the country. As of early August, India has already recorded 453.8 mm of rainfall since the onset of the monsoon season on June 1, surpassing the expected 445.8 mm by 2 per cent. This increase follows a notably wet July, which contrasted sharply with the relatively dry June.
IMD Chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra elaborated during an online briefing that the country is likely to see normal to above-normal rainfall overall for the remaining monsoon period. However, regional variations are expected. Certain areas, including parts of the northeast, eastern India, Ladakh, Saurashtra, and Kutch, are predicted to receive below-normal rainfall. The western Himalayan region might also experience a shortfall. The IMD has also hinted at the potential development of La Niña conditions by late August. La Niña, characterised by cooler sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, is known to influence increased monsoon rainfall in India.
Despite the overall positive rainfall outlook, Mohapatra noted that several regions have already encountered substantial deficits. July saw a 23 per cent rainfall deficit in east and northeast India and a 14 per cent shortfall in northwest India, though the southern peninsula benefited from a 36 per cent excess. Notably, central India, which relies heavily on monsoon rains for agriculture, has seen beneficial rainfall for the third consecutive year. The IMD’s data highlights significant rainfall shortages in areas such as east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, and parts of the northeast, although recovery is anticipated in the coming months. Conversely, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir faced deficits ranging from 35 to 45 per cent.
Mohapatra attributed the excess rainfall in central and southern India to the monsoon trough remaining south of its usual position. The IMD’s forecasts underscore the natural variability of the monsoon but also reflect concerns about climate change, which is contributing to increased unpredictability and extreme weather patterns.
