The Gujarat weather forecast points to scattered rain in parts of South Gujarat and Saurashtra on 19 October, even as Ahmedabad continues to experience unusually high October temperatures, according to the weather department’s assessment reported by Divya Bhaskar.
Rain is likely in Navsari, Valsad, Bhavnagar and Amreli, as well as the Union territories of Daman, Dadra and Nagar Haveli. The forecast attributes the possibility of rain to an active trough. The expected showers are likely to be scattered rather than widespread across the state.
The forecast comes after Gujarat’s monsoon withdrawal and during a period of persistent heat. Ahmedabad recorded a maximum temperature of 38.5 degrees Celsius, taking October temperatures to their highest level in the city in nine years, according to the report. The city had last recorded a higher October maximum in 2017, when the temperature reached 39.4 degrees Celsius.
Ahmedabad’s maximum temperature in October 2024 was 38.4 degrees Celsius. This year, temperatures have been running 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal, while the weather department has indicated that the city’s maximum temperature could reach around 39 degrees Celsius.
The combination of late-season rain in some districts and sustained heat in Ahmedabad highlights the uneven distribution of weather conditions across Gujarat. Residents in the forecast districts may need to account for sudden showers, while people in Ahmedabad continue to face heat-related discomfort during a month that is typically associated with the transition away from the monsoon.
The weather conditions also come against a backdrop of below-normal seasonal rainfall in parts of the state. Gujarat has received 89.19% of its average seasonal rainfall so far this year, according to the figures cited in the report.
Water storage levels remain uneven across the state’s reservoirs. The Sardar Sarovar dam on the Narmada has 99.83% storage, while the other 206 dams together have recorded around 70% storage. Only 21 dams are reported to be full, whereas 79 dams have less than 25% storage.
These figures indicate that high storage in the Narmada system has not translated into uniformly strong reservoir levels across Gujarat. For urban administrations and water managers, the distribution of available water matters alongside the state-wide rainfall total, particularly when heat raises demand in cities and scattered rain does not replenish all catchments equally.
The weather department’s seven-day outlook does not indicate any major change in temperatures across Gujarat. The immediate forecast, therefore, combines continued heat in Ahmedabad with the possibility of scattered rain across selected districts on 19 October. Further weather updates will determine whether the showers remain localised or expand to additional parts of the state.
