The El Nino forecast has intensified, with the World Meteorological Organization warning that the climate phenomenon is likely to peak in December and could become one of the strongest observed since at least 1950. The event is expected to raise temperatures across much of the world and disrupt rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and flooding.
The warning was issued in the WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update. The agency said El Nino would continue strengthening before its expected peak, with its effects compounding the warming already caused by human-driven climate change.
El Nino occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. That warming alters wind, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns across regions far beyond the Pacific. The phenomenon generally occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months, alternating with its opposite phase, La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.
The WMO said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels during October-November-December 2026. The forecast is based on a consensus among 13 leading national and international meteorological centres.
“El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” WMO chief Celeste Saulo said. The agency forecasts a near-100 per cent likelihood that the event will persist through February 2027 and said it could rank among the strongest since records began in 1950.
The immediate urban significance lies in the way shifting heat and rainfall patterns can place simultaneous pressure on essential systems. The WMO warning points to increased risks of drought and floods in different regions, conditions that can affect water supplies, food production, drainage networks, public health and the functioning of transport and other infrastructure. The agency did not provide a city-specific forecast in the material released.
Saulo said El Nino does not create additional heat but releases heat stored in the ocean. “The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release,” she said.
The index tracking sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific rose from 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in June to 2.5 degrees above normal in August. For October-November-December, the anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal. That would exceed the previous record of 2.6 degrees Celsius recorded during the 2015-2016 event.
The WMO said the previous El Nino contributed to 2023 becoming the second-hottest year on record, while 2024 reached an estimated 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average and became the hottest year recorded. Although El Nino usually peaks between November and February, the resulting increase in global temperatures often occurs later.
Some regions are already experiencing severe impacts. The report said drought in parts of Central America has contributed to the deaths of animals and damage to crops. The WMO’s forecast indicates that governments and urban authorities will continue monitoring the event through the expected peak in December and its forecast persistence into February 2027.
