A low-pressure area has formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal and could strengthen into a cyclone by the evening of November 16, while parts of southern Tamil Nadu are forecast to receive rain from November 15, according to a report issued by the Chennai Meteorological Centre.
The system developed at 5.30 am on November 13 over the southeast Bay of Bengal under the influence of an atmospheric circulation over the central Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It is currently located over the same region, the weather bulletin said.
The system is expected to move in a north-western direction and may intensify into a deep depression by November 14. It could strengthen further into a depression over the same area on the morning of November 15, before moving north-north-westwards towards the central Bay of Bengal, according to the forecast.
The meteorological centre has said the system may intensify into a cyclone over the central Bay of Bengal by the evening of November 16. The bulletin does not specify a landfall location or the likely intensity of the system after November 16.
Rainfall is expected to begin in limited areas of the Western Ghats districts and northern coastal Tamil Nadu on November 13 and 14. The forecast describes the rain as light in intensity. On November 15, isolated areas in the Western Ghats districts and southern Tamil Nadu may receive light to moderate rainfall.
The same regions may continue to receive light to moderate rain on November 16. The forecast identifies Tenkasi, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari districts for isolated moderate rainfall on November 17 and 18. Other Western Ghats districts may receive light rain in isolated areas during those two days.
The forecast places the immediate focus on the system’s movement and strengthening over the Bay of Bengal, as well as rainfall in districts that include parts of southern Tamil Nadu. The bulletin does not announce any evacuation order, suspension of services or specific district-level emergency measures.
For local administrations, the forecast brings a weather system into the monitoring window before the expected intensification on November 16. The affected districts include coastal and hill-adjacent areas where rainfall can influence roads, drainage, transport operations and access to settlements, although the supplied bulletin does not provide impact forecasts for those services.
The Chennai Meteorological Centre’s next updates on the system’s movement, intensity and rainfall distribution will determine whether additional warnings or local preparedness measures are issued. The current forecast specifically covers rainfall possibilities through November 18 and identifies the southern districts most likely to receive moderate rain.
