Tamil Nadu is likely to see widespread rain in the coming days as the northeast monsoon strengthens, while a fresh low-pressure area expected over the south-eastern Bay of Bengal around November 12 could intensify into a cyclonic storm next week, the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Chennai, said.
The weather system is expected to gradually intensify and move towards adjoining Sri Lanka by November 15. Weather officials said favourable atmospheric conditions could allow it to strengthen further, potentially developing into a cyclonic storm. Tamil Nadu could receive another spell of substantial rainfall between November 15 and 20 as the system approaches the coast.
The current assessment indicates that, if the system intensifies into a cyclone, it could cross the Tamil Nadu coast around November 19 or subsequently. However, officials cautioned that cyclone formation, its intensity, track and eventual landfall location remain uncertain. The system’s evolution over the next few days will determine how close it comes to the Tamil Nadu coast.
The immediate forecast includes heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds at isolated places in Ramanathapuram and Thoothukudi districts on Tuesday. Moderate rain with thunderstorms and gusty winds is also likely in Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Pudukkottai, Sivaganga, Dindigul, Madurai, Virudhunagar, Theni, Tenkasi, Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari districts, as well as Karaikal.
On Wednesday, moderate rain is expected at isolated places in several coastal and southern districts, including Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari. Other parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry may receive light rain. The RMC said rainfall activity could continue across the state until November 15.
The rainfall is being influenced by an atmospheric circulation over the Comorin Sea and adjoining areas. Chennai is also expected to receive widespread rainfall in the coming days as the northeast monsoon gains momentum.
Tamil Nadu and Puducherry have recorded 25.4 cm of rainfall between October 1 and November 9, compared with the seasonal normal of 24.3 cm. The figure represents a four per cent surplus, according to rainfall statistics cited in the report.
The forecast places coastal and southern districts under close watch because the expected system could bring another period of heavy rain later in the month. The present outlook does not establish whether a cyclone will form or where it would make landfall. Weather officials are monitoring the low-pressure area’s development from around November 12, with its intensity and movement expected to become clearer over the following days.
