Gujarat is set to remain warmer than usual through November and December, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting above-normal daytime and nighttime temperatures across much of the state as strong El Niño conditions persist over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The latest IMD long-range forecast indicates that winter will arrive late across Gujarat. Except for some pockets in Kutch, daytime temperatures are expected to remain significantly above normal. Nights are also likely to stay warmer, particularly in Saurashtra and Kutch, reducing the usual drop in temperature after sunset.
The forecast follows an unusually hot October across the state. In Ahmedabad, temperatures have fluctuated over the past two to three days, but the pattern remains warmer at night. The city recorded a maximum temperature of 32.6°C, which was 2.3°C below normal, while the minimum temperature stood at 22.7°C—nearly 4°C above the expected level for this time of year.
The IMD expects daytime temperatures across Gujarat to rise again after a brief weekend plateau. The agency has linked the broader pattern to very strong El Niño conditions currently prevailing in the equatorial Pacific. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System and other models indicate that these conditions could continue through November and December.
Recent readings show the sharp variation within the state. Rajkot recorded Gujarat’s highest temperature at 37.9°C, making it the state’s hotspot on Saturday. Naliya in Kutch recorded the lowest nighttime temperature at 18.6°C, although even that reading reflects the wide thermal range between different parts of Gujarat rather than the arrival of uniform winter conditions.
For residents, the forecast means that the seasonal shift normally associated with November will be delayed. Cooler mornings and nights are expected to remain limited, particularly in areas where minimum temperatures are forecast to stay above average. The persistence of warmer nights is also a significant part of the forecast, as it means the state may not receive the usual overnight relief from daytime heat.
The IMD’s November-December outlook provides the immediate weather signal for Gujarat, while daily temperatures may continue to vary across cities and regions. The next phase to watch is the expected rise in daytime mercury from Monday, followed by the persistence of above-normal temperatures through the two-month forecast period.
