Telangana is likely to record warmer-than-usual daytime temperatures through November, while rain and thunderstorms are expected across several districts in the first week of the month, according to the India Meteorological Department’s latest outlook. The forecast comes after the state recorded a 24 per cent rainfall deficit between June 1 and October 31.
The IMD’s November outlook, issued on Saturday, projected above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of Telangana. An IMD scientist told Deccan Chronicle that daytime temperatures were expected to remain higher than the usual November average for the region. The weather agency also said very strong El Nino conditions were likely to persist through November and December, while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions were expected to continue until December.
The broader rainfall outlook pointed to below-normal rainfall over much of Telangana. The IMD’s forecast of rainfall below 77 per cent of the long-period average applied to five south peninsular meteorological subdivisions. The long-period average is based on a 50-year rainfall record.
Telangana received 628.2 mm of rainfall between June 1 and October 31, compared with the normal 830.7 mm, according to TGDPS data cited in the report. The resulting shortfall was 202.5 mm. The deficit was substantially higher in parts of southern Telangana, with Jogulamba Gadwal recording 50 per cent less rainfall than normal and Narayanpet 44 per cent less. Nalgonda and Nagarkurnool were each 42 per cent deficient, while Hanumakonda recorded a 41 per cent shortfall.
Hyderabad’s rainfall was 34 per cent below normal during the period, while Medchal-Malkajgiri recorded a 39 per cent deficit. October was particularly dry. A comparison of cumulative TGDPS figures at the end of September and October indicated that the state received approximately 12.7 mm of rain during October, against an estimated normal of 90.1 mm, representing a shortfall of about 86 per cent.
The IMD has forecast light to moderate rain or thundershowers at isolated places until November 1, followed by rain at many places until November 3. The agency said the forecast did not include rainfall that could result from developing weather and cyclone systems.
An isolated heavy rainfall warning has been issued for nine districts on November 2: Adilabad, Komaram Bheem Asifabad, Mancherial, Jagtial, Mahbubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Wanaparthy, Narayanpet and Jogulamba Gadwal. On November 3, the warning will cover Mahbubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Wanaparthy, Narayanpet and Jogulamba Gadwal.
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph are expected across all districts on November 1 and 4. In districts covered by the heavy-rain warning on November 2 and 3, wind speeds could reach 40-50 kmph. Isolated rain is also forecast on November 5 and 6, although no warnings have been issued for those days.
Hyderabad is likely to experience partly cloudy skies, light rain or drizzle and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph until November 4. The IMD has classified the likely impact as very low across all 12 city zones. While the early-November showers may provide temporary relief to districts facing large deficits, the forecast indicates that a few days of rain will not offset the shortfall accumulated since June.
