Andhra Pradesh is likely to see heavy rainfall at isolated places from September 19 to 24 as a developing weather system moves from the Bay of Bengal towards the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Amaravati, said on Friday.
The forecast covers both coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. The IMD said an upper-air cyclonic circulation over north Thailand had persisted and extended up to 9.4 kilometres above mean sea level. The system is expected to emerge over the north Andaman Sea around Saturday, with a low-pressure area likely to form there by Saturday evening.
According to the IMD, the system is then expected to intensify gradually and move west-north-westwards towards the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts over the following four days. The forecast places the affected areas within a period of heightened rainfall risk, although the agency has not confirmed a severe cyclone landfall.
The developing system remains at an early stage, and meteorologists have cautioned that its track and intensity are not yet established. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the United States Global Forecasting System and Skymet have indicated different possible outcomes for the system.
Some model projections show westward movement towards the mainland, while the ECMWF model has indicated a possible movement towards Rajasthan in the final days of September. Forecast confidence therefore remains low, with the models differing on the eventual path and strength of the system.
Heavy rainfall is considered more likely along parts of the Odisha and Andhra Pradesh coasts, but the available forecast does not confirm a severe cyclone or a landfall location. The distinction is significant for coastal districts, where the level and timing of preparedness depend on subsequent forecasts about rainfall intensity, wind conditions and the system’s movement.
“Once cyclonic circulation forms, we can predict the intensity of the system,” IMD director-general Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. His statement indicates that more specific assessments will depend on the development of the circulation and the formation of the anticipated low-pressure area.
Skymet said the possible cyclonic storm over the Bay of Bengal next week could also influence the further withdrawal of the monsoon from central and eastern parts of the country. The IMD’s current forecast covers September 19 to 24, while the wider model projections extend the possible development window to around September 22-26.
Further clarity is expected after the system emerges over the north Andaman Sea and meteorological agencies assess whether the predicted low-pressure area forms and intensifies.
