Telangana is likely to experience a prolonged spell of rain and thunderstorms from September 17 to 22, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting heavy rainfall at isolated places and strong winds as the state remains 19 per cent below its normal cumulative monsoon rainfall.
The IMD, Hyderabad, has forecast light to moderate rain or thundershowers at a few places in Telangana on September 17 and 18. Rainfall is expected at many places across the state from September 19 to 22. Heavy rain is likely at isolated places on September 19 and 20, while isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast across Telangana on September 21 and 22.
The weather system behind the forecast is linked to an upper-air cyclonic circulation over north Thailand. According to the IMD report, the circulation is likely to emerge over the north Andaman Sea on September 18, followed by the formation of a low-pressure area on September 19. The system is expected to intensify gradually and move west-northwest towards the south Odisha–north Andhra Pradesh coasts over the following three to four days.
The IMD also said an upper-air cyclonic circulation was present over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Rayalaseema at about 1.5 km above mean sea level. The combined weather systems are expected to support increased rainfall activity over Telangana during the forecast period.
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 30–40 kmph are likely at isolated places from September 17 to 20, according to an IMD scientist quoted by Deccan Chronicle. The warning is expected to extend across the state on September 20.
The forecast comes against a significant rainfall shortfall in both Telangana and Hyderabad. Between June 1 and September 16, Telangana received 536.5 mm of rainfall against a normal of 664.5 mm, leaving the state with a 19 per cent deficit. Hyderabad recorded 429.4 mm against its normal rainfall of 540.6 mm, representing a 21 per cent deficit.
The coming spell could therefore improve the seasonal rainfall position if the forecast rainfall materialises. Weather blogger Balaji T., in an analysis of the expected spell, estimated that Telangana’s cumulative rainfall could reach 600–640 mm and Hyderabad’s could reach 530–560 mm by the end of September. On that basis, the state’s final rainfall deficit could narrow to between 14 and 18 per cent.
The IMD forecast covers the period through September 22, with the highest rainfall warnings in the current outlook applying to isolated locations on September 21 and 22.
