Subheadline: Festive demand is expanding across categories and cities, but the evidence points to two different online shopping systems: immediacy-led metro consumption and value-led non-metro growth.
Standfirst: India’s festive shopping season is becoming an important test of how the country’s e-commerce infrastructure is changing. Quick commerce platforms are moving beyond groceries into electronics, fashion and beauty, while traditional e-commerce continues to draw demand from shoppers seeking wider choice and price comparison. At the same time, non-metro markets are driving a large share of orders, artificial intelligence is influencing product discovery and platforms are preparing for substantial seasonal hiring. The evidence presented by companies, analysts and the Infisum consultancy suggests that the next phase of online retail will not be defined by one format replacing another. Instead, it will depend on how delivery speed, assortment, affordability, technology and employment fit together across India’s uneven urban and regional markets.
India’s festive shopping cycle is entering a period in which quick commerce in India is no longer confined to groceries or urgent top-up purchases. Platforms are expanding into consumer electronics, fashion and beauty as companies prepare for demand that analysts expect to be healthy in value terms but more measured in volume. The distinction is important: consumers remain willing to spend, but higher prices are making them more selective about what they buy and when they buy it.
Shubham Nimkar, a research analyst at Counterpoint Research, described the expected season as “healthy in value terms, but more measured in volume terms”, according to PTI. Premium consumer electronics are expected to perform well, while bargain-seeking shoppers are likely to concentrate on discounts. Rising smartphone prices, linked in the report to higher memory costs, could encourage buyers to wait for major online sales events before replacing or upgrading devices.
This behaviour places online retail within a broader urban system of warehousing, delivery networks, digital payments and consumer access. The expansion of quick commerce into new categories requires platforms to decide which products can be stocked close enough to customers to justify rapid delivery and which products still depend on the wider assortment and comparison offered by conventional e-commerce. The result is not a straightforward contest between two identical formats.
Achint Setia, chief executive officer of Snapdeal, said quick commerce was “largely solving for immediacy in metro India”, while non-metro consumers were shopping with greater intent and comparing value. His assessment points to a geographic distinction within India’s online retail market. In larger cities, speed can be a central part of the purchase proposition. In smaller cities and towns, the ability to find an acceptable product at the right price may matter more than delivery within a short window.
That difference is reflected in the distribution of demand. Snapdeal said more than 80 per cent of its sales came from non-metro regions. A Meesho spokesperson said 73 per cent of the platform’s Rakhi orders came from non-metro markets, while seller participation increased 72 per cent year-on-year. The Infisum report cited in the PTI report found that 66 per cent of new direct-to-consumer orders originated in Tier II and Tier III cities.
These figures do not establish that non-metro markets are adopting the same consumption patterns as metropolitan areas. Instead, they show that the growth of online retail is increasingly tied to markets where value, product availability and seller participation are central. Setia described the dominant behaviour among Snapdeal’s consumers as value-seeking rather than simple bargain hunting. Buyers, he said, may trade up to better-quality or more aspirational products when prices remain within a sensible range.
The distinction between value and the lowest price is significant for platforms and sellers. It suggests that non-metro demand is not necessarily limited to basic or discounted goods. Consumers may be willing to purchase more aspirational products, but the decision remains bounded by affordability. That creates a different form of premiumisation from the brand-led purchasing associated with some metropolitan shoppers.
Quick commerce is nevertheless widening the range of occasions it seeks to serve. Devendra Meel, chief business officer at Zepto, said festive shopping was becoming more diverse, with brands introducing festive-specific stock-keeping units for different occasions and regions. The report also referred to smaller festivals such as Ekadashi and Teej. Such regional and occasion-specific inventory can help platforms move beyond a uniform national sales calendar, although the supplied material does not establish how widely these products are stocked or how profitable each category is.
The timing of demand is changing as well. Ragini Varma, chief business officer at Fynd, said the festive demand window was moving earlier rather than becoming concentrated around Diwali. Fynd data cited in the report showed that pre-Navratri direct-to-consumer order volumes were up 16 per cent year-on-year in August 2025. The company also reported that direct-to-consumer gross merchandise value around Diwali grew 47 per cent year-on-year in 2025, compared with 34 per cent in 2024, and projected growth of 35-40 per cent around Diwali in 2026.
These figures are company-specific projections and should not be read as a complete measure of the entire market. They do, however, indicate how online retailers are attempting to extend the festive cycle. An earlier demand window can spread pressure across fulfilment centres, delivery networks and temporary workforces rather than concentrating it around a few peak days. It also gives platforms more opportunities to use regional festivals, targeted promotions and category-specific inventory.
The longer-term market projections cited in the report are considerably larger than the current seasonal cycle. Infisum projected that India’s e-commerce market could nearly triple from USD 125 billion in 2024 to USD 345 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 18.4 per cent. The consultancy expected online retail to account for 10-12 per cent of total retail spending by 2030 and to serve 420-440 million online shoppers.
The report attributed part of this growth to quick commerce and the increasing integration of artificial intelligence. AI is already affecting product discovery, according to the companies cited. Setia said 76 per cent of Snapdeal’s orders were influenced by AI in some form, including its image-based “Snap & Shop” search tool. Meesho said AI-led discovery systems were being used to personalise recommendations and identify hyperlocal trends, while creator-led video was expected to play a larger role during the festive period.
Infisum projected that artificial intelligence and machine learning could improve retail productivity by 35-37 per cent by 2030 through conversational commerce, virtual try-ons and voice-enabled shopping. The supplied material does not specify the methodology behind that projection or how productivity is measured. The figure is therefore best understood as a consultancy forecast rather than an established market outcome.
AI’s role also highlights a shift in the structure of online shopping. Search is no longer limited to a consumer entering a product name and comparing listings. Image-based discovery, personalised recommendations, video and voice tools can influence what consumers see before they decide what to buy. For platforms, this creates an opportunity to connect consumers with products more quickly. It also makes the design of digital interfaces part of the retail infrastructure.
The festive season is expected to affect employment across that infrastructure. Amazon India said it had created more than 1.6 lakh seasonal work opportunities across its operations network in more than 400 cities, including tens of thousands of roles in its Amazon Now quick-commerce network. Meesho expected to enable more than 10 lakh indirect seasonal job opportunities, including about 6.5 lakh across its seller network and 3.75 lakh across its logistics ecosystem. The company said roughly 1.3 lakh sellers were expected to hire seasonal workers for packaging, manufacturing and warehousing.
These numbers describe different employment categories and should not be treated as directly comparable headcounts. Amazon referred to seasonal work opportunities across its own pan-India operations network, while Meesho referred to indirect opportunities across sellers and logistics partners. The distinction matters because online retail’s employment footprint extends beyond delivery riders and warehouse workers to include packaging, manufacturing, seller operations and fulfilment.
Zepto offered a different workforce model. Its chief operating officer, Vikas Sharma, said the company invested in a stable, permanent workforce rather than relying on temporary staffing during peak demand, with an emphasis on training and upskilling. The contrast suggests that festive demand is also a test of how platforms organise labour: through temporary expansion, distributed seller hiring or a larger permanent workforce.
The evidence therefore points to a retail system with several overlapping geographies and operating models. Metropolitan quick commerce is organised around immediacy and increasingly diverse inventory. Non-metro online retail is showing strong demand, but with greater emphasis on value and comparison. Traditional e-commerce retains an advantage in categories requiring discovery, wider assortment and price evaluation. Artificial intelligence is influencing the route through which consumers find products, while festive hiring is expanding across logistics and seller networks.
The central urban question is how these models will fit into India’s cities and towns as online retail grows. The supplied projections suggest a substantial increase in online shoppers and digital retail’s share of consumption by 2030, but they do not establish how delivery infrastructure, storage capacity, labour conditions or local traffic patterns will respond. Nor do they show whether quick commerce can maintain its speed advantage as it moves into categories with more complex inventory requirements.
What the evidence confirms is that festive demand is no longer a single Diwali spike centred on a few large metropolitan markets. It is spreading across earlier sales windows, regional occasions, product categories and non-metro consumers. What remains uncertain is how much of this growth will be sustained after discount-led demand fades. Nimkar said demand pulled forward by discounts could be followed by a softer December-January period, although a slowdown in smartphones and appliances could also reflect normal replacement patterns rather than a change in consumption. The next indicators to watch are post-festive demand, the performance of newly added quick-commerce categories, the durability of non-metro growth and the employment models platforms use beyond the seasonal peak.
