Diwali airfares in Kolkata have exposed a change in the economics of festive travel: demand fell even during a period that traditionally produces a sharp arrival surge, while high minimum fares discouraged passengers from flying. The shift is not simply a story about fewer holiday travellers. It shows how airline pricing, fuel costs, capacity decisions and the availability of alternative transport now shape who can use air travel during peak periods.
IndiGo recorded a more than 10 per cent decline in passenger numbers to and from eastern India during Diwali week compared with the preceding week, according to aviation industry sources cited by The Telegraph. Air India also did not see the expected festive rush. One-way fares to Kolkata, known as Calcutta in the source report, remained below the extreme levels seen before the Covid pandemic, but passengers still faced high base fares that discouraged non-essential journeys.
Before the pandemic, last-minute one-way fares to Kolkata from some cities could reach ₹50,000 during Diwali as people working or studying elsewhere returned home. This year, fares barely crossed ₹20,000 for some routes. That lower peak, however, did not make flying broadly affordable. Travel agents cited fares of around ₹23,000 from Mumbai, ₹20,000 from Delhi and ₹18,000 from Bengaluru during the festive period.
The apparent contradiction is important. Lower last-minute fares than in earlier years do not necessarily mean that air travel has become affordable. The source material indicates that minimum fares rose because of higher fuel costs and other factors. This reduced the number of passengers willing or able to make discretionary journeys. In other words, the ceiling on fares may have fallen because demand weakened, while the floor remained high enough to prevent demand from recovering.
This is a different pattern from the traditional festive surge. Airlines and airports generally prepare for Diwali by adding capacity or managing higher passenger volumes. Instead, airlines scheduled around 6 per cent fewer flights across October and November than during the same period a year earlier, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. Industry sources described this as the first capacity decline since the pandemic.
Capacity and fares are closely connected in this account. When airlines operate fewer flights, the number of available seats falls. Yet if the remaining seats are priced beyond what passengers consider reasonable, the reduction in supply does not automatically produce stronger revenue from a festive rush. It can instead push price-sensitive passengers towards trains and buses, as travel agents reported during this Diwali season.
The eastern India figures underline the change in travel behaviour. IndiGo operates 126 flights a day from Kolkata and nearly 2,200 flights across its network, connecting more than 95 domestic and 40 international destinations with a fleet of more than 430 aircraft, according to information cited in the report. The airline carried more than 123 million passengers in FY2026, its spokesperson said. Against that scale, a regional festive decline may appear limited, but it is significant because Diwali has historically been a period of unusually strong demand for Kolkata-bound travel.
Airport data offers a more precise view of the shift. Kolkata airport typically handles between 25,000 and 26,000 domestic arrivals each day, with a similar number of departures, according to an airport official. On November 8, however, the airport recorded 25,886 domestic arrivals and 14,146 departures. The official said departure numbers are usually low on Diwali evenings and nights, while arrivals have traditionally been much higher than average. The available figures suggest that the expected arrival-side spike did not materialise in the same way this year.
The distinction between arrivals and departures matters for interpreting airport activity. A lower number of departures on Diwali evening alone cannot establish a broad collapse in air travel because passenger movements are affected by the timing of the festival and normal holiday patterns. But the reported fall in arrivals, the decline in IndiGo passenger numbers and the reduction in scheduled flights point in the same direction: the festive market did not produce its usual intensity.
The immediate explanation offered by industry participants is cost. Airline sources said minimum fares had risen because of surging fuel prices. One airline official said that lower minimum fares had earlier encouraged passengers to travel, after which last-minute fares could rise as seats became scarce. This year, according to the official, the higher minimum fare discouraged passengers before that late-booking surge could develop.
That explanation places the focus on the entry price of air travel rather than only on the last available seat. A passenger deciding whether to visit family, take a short holiday or travel for another non-essential reason may compare the full cost of a flight with rail or bus alternatives. Once the initial airfare becomes too high, the passenger may not enter the airline market at all. The result is weaker demand even if the eventual last-minute price is lower than the extreme fares recorded in earlier years.
Anil Punjabi, chairman, east, of the Travel Agents Federation of India, said high airfares had sharply reduced non-essential travel. He also said many passengers were choosing trains and buses instead of flights because of the high fares. That substitution is a reminder that air travel does not operate in isolation from the wider urban and inter-city mobility system. Kolkata’s festive connectivity depends not only on airport capacity but also on the price and availability of competing modes.
For passengers, the change affects more than holiday convenience. Festive travel is often tied to family commitments, education, employment and migration between cities. The source material does not quantify how many travellers shifted to trains or buses, but the reported movement suggests that airfare inflation can change the mode through which people maintain those connections. The airport may see fewer passengers, while pressure moves elsewhere in the transport network.
For airlines, the problem is more complex than simply adding flights. IndiGo reduced its all-India capacity by 1 per cent in the quarter ended September, according to the report. The airline also reported a net loss of ₹1,879 crore for that quarter, narrower than the ₹2,582-crore loss in the corresponding quarter a year earlier. Its chief executive, Willie Walsh, said fares might need to rise to offset a significant increase in the fuel bill.
Those figures place the Diwali experience within a broader commercial pressure. Airlines are attempting to manage fuel expenses and financial losses while maintaining a network that serves a large number of destinations. Raising fares may protect revenue per passenger, but it can also reduce demand in markets where travellers have alternatives. Cutting capacity may control costs, but it can further limit choice during periods when passengers need to travel at short notice.
The evidence therefore points to a tension between airline economics and the public role of connectivity. Airports and airlines are essential to a metropolitan economy, but not every passenger has the same ability to absorb higher fares. Business travellers or passengers with fixed commitments may continue to fly, while discretionary and price-sensitive travellers switch modes or cancel trips. A festive decline can consequently reveal a change in the composition of demand, not only a reduction in its total volume.
Kolkata’s case also highlights the importance of distinguishing between airport throughput and transport access. An airport can maintain a substantial daily schedule and still become less accessible to ordinary travellers if the minimum fare rises sharply. Conversely, a lower fare at the last minute may not restore access if passengers have already changed their plans. The relevant measure for urban mobility is therefore not only how many flights operate, but how many residents can realistically afford to use them.
The available report does not establish whether the fare pressure was uniform across all routes, how much traffic moved to rail and road, or whether the passenger decline will continue beyond the festive period. It also does not provide a complete comparison of airline load factors, route-level capacity or airport-wide passenger totals for the full Diwali season. Those gaps matter before drawing broader conclusions about the aviation market.
What is clear is that the old festive pattern cannot be assumed. Kolkata airport still handled tens of thousands of domestic arrivals on the cited day, and airlines continued to operate extensive networks. But the combination of fewer scheduled flights, high minimum fares, weaker IndiGo passenger numbers and reported substitution towards trains and buses shows that capacity alone does not guarantee accessible connectivity.
The Diwali episode turns airfares into an urban mobility indicator. It shows how fuel prices and airline finances can reach households through decisions about family visits, holidays and inter-city movement. The next developments to monitor are whether airlines maintain reduced capacity, whether fares remain elevated after the festive period and whether passenger demand returns when peak-season pressure eases. Those indicators will help establish whether this was a temporary Diwali anomaly or an early sign of a more durable affordability constraint in air travel.
