The much-anticipated southwest monsoon is projected to make landfall in Kerala around May 31, signalling the commencement of the critical four-month rainfall season vital for India’s agrarian economy.
“This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days,” the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday. “This is not early. It is close to the normal date,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
This prediction, based on historical data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), places the onset within a period marked by significant variability over the last century and a half. The earliest recorded onset was on May 11 in 1918, while the most delayed occurred on June 18, 1972. The monsoon’s arrival dates in recent years include June 8 in 2023, May 29 in 2022, June 3 in 2021, and June 1 in 2020. This year, the IMD anticipates above-normal rainfall throughout the monsoon season, driven by favourable La Nina conditions expected to establish by August-September.
April’s record-breaking heat waves across several states have stressed power grids, depleted water resources, and caused drought-like conditions, underscoring the importance of a robust monsoon. The prediction of plentiful rainfall thus brings a sense of relief, especially as 52 percent of India’s net cultivated area relies on monsoon rains for crop irrigation. The replenishment of reservoirs, crucial for both drinking water supply and power generation, also hinges on a strong monsoon.
The monsoon season, particularly June and July, is essential for the sowing of Kharif crops, which form the backbone of India’s agricultural output. Although El Nino conditions—typically associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions—are currently prevailing, the anticipated shift to La Nina promises abundant rainfall.
Additionally, the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which creates a temperature gradient favouring rainfall over southern India, is forecasted. Presently neutral, the IOD is expected to turn positive by August, further enhancing monsoonal precipitation.
Another favourable factor includes below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere and Eurasia, which has historically correlated with robust monsoon activity. The cumulative impact of these climatic factors suggests a promising monsoon season ahead, providing much-needed respite to India’s agricultural sector and ensuring water security across the nation. ‘Inverse relationship’ between the levels of snow here and the monsoon.
