By Urban Acres Geostrategy & Sustainability Desk
The terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, which claimed at least 26 lives, including two foreign nationals, has once again placed India-Pakistan relations under a harsh spotlight. But beyond the familiar lens of national security and counter-terrorism, the tragedy is reigniting a more nuanced and long-overdue conversation: Does the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) still serve India’s strategic and climate resilience goals in the 21st century?
A Treaty Forged in a Pre-Climate Era
Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the IWT was once hailed as a model for cooperative river sharing. But over six decades later, the geopolitical, ecological, and hydrological landscape has transformed dramatically. Today, India uses less than 20% of the Indus system’s 168 million acre-feet of annual water flow, while Pakistan commands nearly 80% — a ratio increasingly seen as misaligned with current strategic realities and climatic urgencies. With glacial retreat in the Himalayas, unpredictable monsoons, and erratic flow patterns driven by climate change, the Indus system — particularly the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) — is no longer a stable water resource. India’s limited storage and underutilization rights are not just a diplomatic concession—they are a growing climate vulnerability.
Security Meets Sustainability
The aftermath of the Pahalgam tragedy has catalyzed calls to reassess the IWT as not only a security issue but also as a climate adaptation and water sovereignty imperative. India’s current usage of the treaty’s provisions is alarmingly low: Only 6.42 lakh of the permitted 13.4 lakh acres in J&K and Ladakh are irrigated. Barely any of the 3.6 MAF permitted storage on western rivers has been developed. Hydroelectric potential on run-of-river projects remains largely untapped due to diplomatic friction and procedural inertia.
This underutilization translates into missed opportunities for renewable energy generation, agricultural resilience, and strategic river flow management, especially as northern Indian states such as Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Rajasthan face growing water stress under climate pressure.
Hydro-Strategy in the Age of Climate Volatility
The Tulbul Navigation Project (or Wullar Barrage), long blocked by Pakistan, is emblematic of this issue. Intended as a basic infrastructure for navigation and storage, the project has become collateral damage in cross-border diplomacy. But such infrastructure is vital if India is to manage its climate-induced hydrological extremes — floods, droughts, and seasonal imbalances that now define the new water normal. In geopolitical terms, river control is no longer just about power generation or irrigation — it’s about climate resilience, internal water equity, and securing strategic depth in the face of an unstable western frontier.
Walking the Tightrope: Global Optics and Domestic Realities
India issued a formal notice to Pakistan in January 2023, flagging its obstructionist behavior in the Permanent Indus Commission from 2017 to 2022. Yet, a unilateral withdrawal or suspension of the IWT carries significant international ramifications — including scrutiny under transboundary water governance frameworks and potential diplomatic friction with key global actors watching South Asia’s water politics. India must therefore walk a strategic line: recalibrating its rights under the treaty with a legal, climate-informed approach, while also preparing for the diplomatic work of building international consensus for any future restructuring.
The Future of Indus: From Treaty to Leverage?
As India stares down the twin barrels of terrorism and climate change, the Indus system — once seen as a conduit for peace — may become a tool of assertion. Some experts argue for a “hydro-strategic doctrine” that links water sharing to cross-border cooperation on security and sustainability. Others see the need for a phased legal renegotiation — not a belligerent withdrawal, but a measured recalibration that reflects contemporary risks and responsibilities. What’s clear is this: the Indus Waters Treaty, as it stands, no longer aligns with the hydrological, geopolitical, or ecological reality of South Asia. Whether India chooses reform, renegotiation, or robust enforcement of its full entitlements, the age of water as passive diplomacy is ending. And with every act of aggression — like the one in Pahalgam — the case for strategic, climate-driven water policy becomes not just relevant, but urgent.
Urban Acres urges policy thinkers, climate experts, and strategic planners to reframe water treaties like the IWT not as relics of peace but as evolving instruments of resilience. In an era of ecological fragility and geopolitical flux, India must align its water diplomacy with its climate destiny.
Also read – https://urbanacres.in/srinagar-pahalgam-road-may-redefine-south-kashmir/
Pahalgam Tragedy Rekindles Strategic & Climate-Driven Rethink of the Indus Waters Treaty
