The northeast monsoon is expected to begin over southern India within the next three days, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting heavy rain in Tamil Nadu for four days from October 15. The weather shift could bring a widespread change in rainfall conditions across the state after the southwest monsoon withdraws.
The IMD said conditions are becoming favourable for the northeast monsoon to commence from October 15. It also expects the southwest monsoon season to withdraw over the next two or three days, marking the transition to the principal rainy season for Tamil Nadu and parts of southern India.
According to the forecast, a low-pressure area may form over the southeast Bay of Bengal on October 13 because of an atmospheric circulation near the southern Andaman Sea. The development is being monitored as part of the weather system expected to influence rainfall over Tamil Nadu and neighbouring areas.
The IMD has forecast moderate rain on October 12 in Coimbatore, the Nilgiris, Erode, Tiruppur, Theni, Dindigul, Madurai, Virudhunagar, Sivaganga, Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, Tenkasi and Kanniyakumari districts. The forecast covers a wide stretch of western, southern and coastal Tamil Nadu.
Moderate rain is also likely on October 13 in Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Mayiladuthurai, Pudukkottai, Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari, the weather agency said. Several of these districts include coastal settlements and delta areas that receive significant rainfall during the northeast monsoon season.
The forecast comes as Tamil Nadu prepares for the period when rainfall patterns are closely linked to the functioning of roads, storm-water drains, low-lying neighbourhoods and public transport systems. However, the supplied IMD report does not provide district-wise rainfall quantities, specific urban flood warnings or details of any municipal preparedness measures.
The northeast monsoon is particularly significant for Tamil Nadu because the state receives a substantial share of its annual rainfall during this season. The IMD’s forecast indicates that the transition is expected to begin shortly, while the possible low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal could contribute to the rainfall activity forecast for the coming days.
The immediate forecast is for moderate rain in the listed districts on October 12 and October 13, followed by the possibility of heavy rain across Tamil Nadu for four days from October 15. Further updates from the IMD will determine the intensity, distribution and duration of rainfall in individual districts.
