India’s agricultural sector faces potential setbacks as deficient rainfall in June, the crucial onset month of the monsoon season, threatens to impede the planting of rice, a cornerstone of the summer-sown kharif crops. Analysts and meteorologists from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have sounded caution following a recent weather update indicating below-normal precipitation across much of the country.
The IMD’s forecast maintains an overall normal monsoon outlook, projected at 96% of the long-term average of 87 cm (35 inches). However, the onset phase in June is anticipated to witness a shortfall, with expected rainfall pegged at 92% of the average. This deficiency poses immediate challenges for farmers, particularly in northwest India encompassing critical agricultural states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, renowned for cultivating crops such as rice, cotton, and soybean.
“The patchy rainfall in June could elevate cultivation costs as farmers may resort to groundwater irrigation for rice nurseries,” noted agricultural analysts assessing the implications of the weather update. Historically, inadequate rains during this period have delayed crop transplanting and sowing, as observed during the 2016 season, resulting in reduced yields and economic pressures on agricultural communities.
“The window for sowing extends till mid-July, but the timely arrival of adequate rainfall in July is pivotal to mitigate adverse impacts,” stressed a prominent agricultural expert from SKN Agriculture University, Jaipur. The cautionary advice echoes across agricultural advisories, with the Maharashtra agriculture department advising against early sowing of crops like groundnut, soybean, cotton, and urad if monsoon rains are delayed beyond the first fortnight of July.
Adding to the concerns is the looming spectre of an El Nino weather pattern, which historically disrupts normal monsoon patterns and poses a significant risk to India’s agricultural output. Rahul Chauhan of IGrain Pvt Ltd underscored the broader implications of such a weather phenomenon, highlighting its potential to exacerbate rainfall deficits and complicate crop planning strategies for the season ahead. As stakeholders in India’s agricultural sector navigate these challenges, the focus remains on adaptive strategies, timely interventions, and closely monitoring weather patterns to mitigate risks and ensure sustainable crop yields amidst evolving climatic uncertainties.
