Kerala has experienced an early onset of the southwest monsoon, arriving on May 24, 2025—eight days ahead of the usual June 1 date and marking the earliest arrival since 2009.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed this development, noting that the monsoon’s early arrival could have significant implications for agriculture and water resources in the region. The IMD’s criteria for declaring the monsoon’s arrival include sustained rainfall of at least 2.5 mm over two consecutive days at a minimum of 14 meteorological stations, deep westerly winds extending up to 600 hectopascals, and a decline in Outgoing Longwave Radiation values below 200 watts per square meter. The early onset was facilitated by surplus pre-monsoon rainfall, which contributed to the monsoon’s advancement.
This year’s monsoon is projected to bring above-average rainfall, with the IMD forecasting total precipitation at 105% of the long-period average (LPA) of 880 mm. The neutral phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to support this robust monsoon activity. The early arrival of the monsoon is anticipated to benefit the kharif season, allowing farmers to commence sowing activities promptly. This could lead to improved crop yields, particularly for staples such as rice, corn, and sugarcane, which are heavily dependent on monsoon rains. However, the IMD has issued warnings of extremely heavy rainfall—exceeding 205 mm in 24 hours—through Monday in Kerala and Mahe, with similar conditions expected in coastal Karnataka. Additionally, a well-marked low-pressure area off the Konkan-Goa coast intensified into a depression on Saturday and is expected to make landfall near Raigad in Maharashtra by evening, bringing squally winds and strong monsoonal currents across the Arabian Sea.
The monsoon’s early onset underscores the importance of preparedness in managing water resources and mitigating potential flooding risks. Authorities are urged to remain vigilant and ensure that infrastructure is equipped to handle the anticipated heavy rains. The IMD’s forecasts and warnings will be crucial in guiding response efforts and minimizing adverse impacts on communities and agriculture.
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