In recent decades, India’s climate during the Holi festival has undergone significant changes, with rising temperatures posing a growing concern across several states.
Initially, only Maharashtra, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh faced a more than 5% chance of experiencing temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius during Holi in the 1970s. However, this scenario has drastically transformed, with six additional states, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh, now facing similar risks. Among these states, Maharashtra stands out with the highest probability of crossing the 40-degree Celsius mark during late March, presenting a 14% likelihood. These warming trends were highlighted in a recent analysis conducted by Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and communicators based in the United States. The study examined monthly average temperatures in March and April since 1970, revealing concerning patterns of temperature escalation.
“Global warming is favouring an early arrival of the hot weather season in India,” said Dr Akshay Deoras, a researcher at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK. “Given that Holi is an outdoor festival, the early onset of hot weather increases the vulnerability to heat related illness,” he warned. Holi falls on March 25 this year.
The analysis revealed that the northern and western regions of India have witnessed the most rapid rise in March temperatures, with Jammu & Kashmir experiencing the largest change at 2.8 degrees Celsius. Similarly, April temperatures have seen a more uniform warming trend, with Mizoram recording the greatest change at 1.9 degrees Celsius since 1970. Delving into the urban context, the analysis scrutinised temperature changes in 51 major cities across India. Notably, 14 cities located predominantly in the central region emerged as having the highest likelihood of experiencing temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius during late March. These cities include Nagpur, Kota, Bhilai, Raipur, Jodhpur, Jabalpur, Bhopal, Varanasi, and Gwalior.
Moreover, the analysis highlighted specific cities facing heightened risks, such as Bilaspur, which has witnessed a 2.5-fold increase in the likelihood of extreme heat since the 1970s, with a current risk of 31%. Nagpur follows closely with a 27% risk. Notably, Indore has seen a remarkable surge in risk, now being 8.1 times more likely to experience temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius compared to previous years, albeit with a relatively low risk of 8%.
“There has been an abrupt transition in temperatures from cool winter-like temperatures to much warmer conditions now. After the strong warming trend observed in February, March is also likely to follow the same pattern,” said Andrew Pershing, VP for Science at Climate Central, adding, “These warming trends in India are a clear sign of the impacts of human-led climate change.” “The concentration of greenhouse gasses, which is responsible for global warming, is much larger at present compared to what it was in the 1970s,” added Deora.
