In a concerning development for Delhi’s ongoing battle with air pollution, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has decided to halt predictions regarding the contribution of farm fires to PM2.5 levels. The decision support system (DSS), an essential tool under the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, has stopped issuing forecasts due to low accuracy, which ranged around 55%. The model had previously provided estimations of stubble burning’s contribution to Delhi’s notorious air pollution, but the margin of error made it unreliable. For now, only recorded data from the previous day will be shared with relevant agencies.
The IITM’s decision underscores the challenges of tackling Delhi’s annual air quality crisis. Despite predictions estimating the farm fire contribution at 11.1%, actual readings were significantly higher at 15.96%. The inability to provide accurate forecasts hampers preemptive actions by authorities, including the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM), which relies on these predictions to implement curbs under the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP). Moreover, widespread violations of the firecracker ban during festivals add to the problem, proving that enforcement remains a significant civic issue, with the city struggling to manage public compliance.
From a sustainability perspective, the failure of the DSS model highlights the importance of precise data in formulating environmentally sound policies. Accurate forecasting helps mitigate environmental damage by allowing authorities to act promptly, reducing the emissions that worsen air quality. The delay in forecasting leaves the administration reactive rather than proactive, exacerbating public health risks and undermining efforts to control the emission sources responsible for the city’s choking pollution.
In comparison, farm fires in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh have shown some reduction this year, with Punjab reporting its lowest count in five years. However, Uttar Pradesh recorded its highest in four years, indicating that more regional cooperation is needed to address the air quality crisis. Experts stress that without reliable data, such as what DSS once provided, the effectiveness of long-term urban sustainability strategies remains in jeopardy. An accurate pollution forecasting system is crucial for a holistic approach to improving air quality and fostering sustainable urban development.
