A low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal could intensify into a cyclone early next week, prompting the Alipore weather office to issue rain, wind and sea-condition warnings for South Bengal from Tuesday, October 27, to Friday, October 30.
The system formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal on Friday morning along with a cyclonic circulation extending up to 5.8 kilometres above sea level, according to a special bulletin issued by the Alipore weather office. It is expected to become a depression on Saturday and move westwards and north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal.
The system could intensify into a deep depression on Sunday and become a cyclone over the west-central Bay of Bengal on Monday, October 26. The bulletin said it may strengthen further over the following two days while moving towards northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha. If it develops into a named cyclone, it could be called ‘Arnab’, a name assigned by Bangladesh under the North Indian Ocean naming system.
The system is expected to make the sea off the West Bengal coast rough, with strong winds affecting coastal conditions. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea from Tuesday until further instructions are issued. The restriction is intended to reduce risks for fishing vessels as the system moves and weather conditions deteriorate over the Bay.
For South Bengal, no storm or rain activity is expected in any district until Monday. Light to moderate rain could occur in Kolkata, Howrah, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, East Midnapore, West Midnapore and Jhargram on Tuesday. South 24 Parganas and the two Midnapore districts may also receive thunderstorms accompanied by winds of 30 to 40 kilometres per hour. A yellow alert has been issued for those three districts.
On Wednesday, a yellow alert will be in force across all South Bengal districts, including Kolkata. Heavy rain, measured at 7 to 11 centimetres, is likely in South 24 Parganas, East Midnapore, West Midnapore and Jhargram. Winds of 40 to 50 kilometres per hour may accompany rain in South 24 Parganas and the two Midnapore districts. Other South Bengal districts may also experience thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Heavy rain is forecast in West Midnapore, Jhargram, Bankura and Purulia on Thursday, while Kolkata and the remaining South Bengal districts will remain under a storm and rain warning. The forecast places coastal districts, where sea conditions may worsen first, under the earliest and strongest warnings.
North Bengal is not expected to receive storm or rain activity until Tuesday. Light rain may occur in all eight North Bengal districts on Wednesday. On Thursday, heavy rain is possible in Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar, while Malda, North Dinajpur and South Dinajpur may receive thunderstorms and gusty winds. Warnings have been issued for those six districts.
The weather office’s forecast remains focused on the system’s expected development and movement over the Bay. The next instructions on fishing activity and district-level weather conditions will determine how long the coastal restriction remains in place.
