Cyclone Akvan is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal on Monday as a depression strengthens, with Kolkata and parts of south Bengal likely to receive rain from November 18, according to a special bulletin issued by the Regional Meteorological Centre in Kolkata.
The system is forecast to move north-northwestwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm over the central parts of the south and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal by Monday. It could strengthen further into a severe cyclonic storm on Tuesday before becoming a very severe cyclonic storm by Thursday morning.
At that stage, the system is expected to produce maximum sustained wind speeds of 120 to 130 kmph, with gusts reaching up to 145 kmph, the bulletin said. The cyclone’s eventual trajectory remains unclear, although meteorologists said it could move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.
The system will be named Akvan once it forms. The name was assigned by Iran. Meteorologists expect the system to continue intensifying as it moves across the Bay, but officials have not yet issued a weather warning for Bengal up to November 18.
HR Biswas, deputy director-general of meteorology, said Kolkata and south Bengal could receive light rain from November 18. The showers may become more intense on November 19 and 20, although heavy rain has not been forecast at this stage.
“Coastal areas of south Bengal are likely to receive heavier rain but the intensity can’t be predicted till the cyclone pathway can be predicted more clearly,” Biswas said.
Between the mornings of November 18 and 19, light rain or thundershowers are likely at one or two places in North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, East Midnapore, West Midnapore, Kolkata and Howrah. The forecast places Kolkata within the initial peripheral impact zone, even though the system’s final track has not been established.
Weather activity is expected to increase between November 19 and 20. Light to moderate rain or thundershowers are then likely at a few places in North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, East Midnapore, West Midnapore, Jhargram, Kolkata and Hooghly. Isolated locations elsewhere in south Bengal may also receive light rain.
For Kolkata, the forecast points to a possible shift from relatively stable conditions to rain and thunderstorms later in the week. The immediate implications for the city will depend on the cyclone’s movement, the intensity of its outer bands and the extent of rainfall over urban and coastal districts.
The Regional Meteorological Centre is continuing to monitor the system. Officials are expected to refine the rainfall outlook and issue further guidance as the cyclone’s pathway becomes clearer.
