Andhra Pradesh’s rainfall deficit has reached 47 per cent, worsening water scarcity for households and agriculture as forecasting models indicate the possible development of a weather system around September 23-24. The situation has already contributed to a shortfall of about two lakh hectares in kharif sowing compared with the previous year, while storage in the state’s major reservoirs remains well below capacity.
The deficit has reduced water availability for irrigation and affected water levels in major and medium reservoirs, according to a report by Deccan Chronicle. Storage in major reservoirs currently stands at 524 tmc ft against a full reservoir level of 1,014 tmc ft.
PLN Murthy, director of the Visakhapatnam Cyclone Warning Centre, said the developing system could reduce the rainfall deficit if the forecast materialises. “If the forecast proves right, the system might bring down the rainfall deficit by at least 20 per cent. The current deficit as on date is 47 per cent,” Murthy said.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the United States Global Forecasting System have indicated the possible development of a system with a distorted eye-like circulation around September 23-24. The model projections, however, do not establish that the system will intensify into a named cyclone.
The uncertainty is significant for a state already dealing with reduced water availability. The rainfall shortfall has affected both domestic water conditions and irrigation, while the reduced reservoir storage has narrowed the water available for farming. The reported decline in kharif sowing compared with last year reflects the immediate agricultural effect of the deficit.
If the system strengthens into a cyclone, it may be named Arnab, a name contributed by Bangladesh. That possibility remains conditional. Its eventual intensity, rainfall distribution and landfall conditions will depend on its movement and strengthening over the following days.
The present projections therefore point to a potential change in Andhra Pradesh’s rainfall situation, but not yet to a confirmed cyclone or uniform rainfall across the state. Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department will remain the key reference for public safety, preparedness and decisions linked to the system’s development.
