Ahmedabad’s housing market is showing an increasingly uneven recovery: sales and launches have reached their strongest levels since 2018, yet Gujarat’s developers are registering fewer new projects as land, construction materials and affordability pressures narrow the room for fresh supply. The contrast matters because a market can remain active for buyers while becoming more cautious about what gets built, where it is built and whom it is priced for.
Data cited in the report shows that 756 projects were registered with the Gujarat Real Estate Regulatory Authority between April and September. That pace is lower than the 1,606 registrations recorded across financial year 2025-26 and the 1,818 registrations in 2024-25, although the current financial year is only half complete. The first-half figure therefore does not establish a full-year decline, but it does indicate a more measured approach to project launches during the opening months of the year.
Ahmedabad accounted for the largest share of new registrations in the first six months, with 217 projects. Surat followed with 180, while Vadodara recorded 81 and Gandhinagar 71. Bhavnagar registered 59 projects, moving ahead of Rajkot, which recorded 41. The distribution shows that the moderation is not confined to one market, even as the scale and pace of development vary across Gujarat’s major urban centres.
The caution among developers is emerging alongside continued demand in Ahmedabad. A Knight Frank India report cited in the source said the city recorded 14,300 housing sales between January and September, up 2% from 14,064 units during the same period in 2025. The report described this as Ahmedabad’s strongest first-nine-month sales performance since 2018. Developers launched 16,745 units during the period, a 1% increase over the previous year and also the highest level since 2018.
These figures point to a market that has not stopped expanding, but is becoming more selective. Sales increased only modestly, while the composition of demand shifted more clearly towards higher-value homes. Sales of homes priced above Rs 1 crore rose 16% to 3,885 units. Their share of total sales increased from 24% to 27%, indicating that premium housing is accounting for a larger portion of the market even as developers confront pressure on project economics.
Prices have also moved upwards. Weighted average residential prices increased 3.7% year-on-year to Rs 4,837 per sq ft in the third quarter of 2026, according to the cited report. At the same time, unsold inventory rose 9% to about 38,700 units. The combination is significant: stronger sales and higher prices have not prevented the stock of unsold homes from increasing. This suggests that supply is still entering the market faster than it is being absorbed in at least some segments, or that the available inventory does not fully match the location, size and price preferences of buyers.
The central pressure on new supply is cost. A leading developer, quoted in the report, said land prices had risen sharply and key raw material prices had also increased, particularly after what the report described as the US-Iran war. The developer said builders could not pass the entire increase on to buyers, narrowing margins. The claim is presented as an industry explanation for cautious launch decisions rather than as independently quantified evidence of the exact contribution made by each cost factor.
This matters for the structure of Ahmedabad’s housing market. When development costs rise faster than buyers’ ability or willingness to pay, projects do not simply become more expensive. Some may be delayed, redesigned, shifted to higher-value segments or withheld until market conditions improve. The result can be a widening gap between the number of homes that are commercially viable to build and the homes that households can realistically afford.
The affordability issue is visible in the industry’s own description of the market. The developer said the definition of affordable housing was nearly a decade old and that many projects now exceeded those limits. According to the developer, affordable-housing launches had consequently declined. The supplied evidence does not provide a revised threshold or a numerical measure of the fall in affordable supply, but it identifies a structural problem: a static eligibility or pricing framework can lose relevance as land and construction costs rise.
For urban residents, this is more important than the headline volume of launches. A city may report record project registrations or strong overall sales while offering fewer homes within the reach of lower- and middle-income households. Premium demand can support transaction values and developer revenues, but it does not automatically resolve the housing needs created by population growth, employment expansion or household formation.
The location of future supply is another part of the equation. Viral Shah, secretary of CREDAI Gujarat, said project launches were expected to pick up after Diwali and identified Vaishnodevi, Chharodi-Gota and Zundal as areas that should see more affordable housing and three-bedroom supply. These locations are part of Ahmedabad’s expanding urban edge, where land availability and new infrastructure can make larger projects possible. However, the supplied report does not establish whether upcoming supply will be priced within the reach of households currently excluded from the market.
Shah also pointed to demand from buyers based in other states and said infrastructure upgrades would improve quality of life. He referred to the Commonwealth Games as a factor that would put the city on the global map. These expectations form part of the industry’s outlook, but the report does not provide a project-wise assessment of how the event or infrastructure works would affect housing demand, prices or construction schedules.
The commercial market is providing a more positive signal. Developers cited improving demand for commercial spaces, particularly from the banking, financial services and insurance sector. Jigar Bharwad, a developer quoted in the report, said areas with metro connectivity were seeing higher commercial interest. This links transport infrastructure with real-estate demand in a direct way: locations with access to mass transit can become more attractive for offices and related activity, although the report does not quantify the price or absorption premium associated with metro-linked sites.
This connection is important for Ahmedabad’s wider urban form. If commercial demand increasingly concentrates around metro-connected areas, new employment clusters may develop closer to public transport. That could strengthen the case for mixed-use growth and reduce the dependence of some trips on private vehicles. But the evidence available here supports only the direction of market interest, not a conclusion that transit-oriented development is already being achieved.
The GujRERA registration figures also provide an institutional lens. Project registration is a formal step through which new developments enter the regulated market, making the numbers a useful indicator of developer intent. They are not the same as completed housing supply, occupied homes or affordable housing delivered to residents. A registration may precede construction and possession by a substantial period, while a slowdown in registrations may reflect cost pressures, caution or timing rather than a permanent contraction in housing activity.
The same distinction applies to sales. Ahmedabad’s 14,300 sales in the first nine months of the year show market activity, but the rising share of homes above Rs 1 crore means the aggregate number needs to be read alongside its price distribution. A market can sell more homes and still become less accessible if growth is concentrated in premium categories. The increase in unsold inventory reinforces the need to examine not only how many homes are sold, but which homes remain unsold and where they are located.
What the current evidence confirms is a divergence between demand strength and supply confidence. Ahmedabad has recorded its best first-nine-month sales and launch performance since 2018, while Gujarat’s first-half project registrations suggest that developers are becoming more careful. Prices are rising, premium sales are growing and inventory is also increasing. Together, these indicators describe a market with activity but not uniform health across segments.
The next phase will depend on whether the expected post-festive revival produces broader supply or mainly more premium and commercial projects. CREDAI Gujarat expects launches to pick up after Diwali, while developers are watching metro-connected areas and commercial demand. The key urban question is whether that revival will improve the availability of affordable and well-connected homes, or deepen the market’s tilt towards higher-value housing. The evidence so far points to strong momentum at the top end, cautious project decisions and an affordability gap that remains unresolved.
