Andhra Pradesh is likely to receive widespread rain between October 14 and 19 as a developing low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal moves towards the southern peninsula, according to private weather website Skymet. The forecast comes ahead of Dasara and includes the state’s coastal districts and Rayalaseema.
Skymet said a low-level cyclonic circulation was present over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining areas. The circulation is expected to strengthen vertically and may lead to the formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal.
The system is forecast to move across the south-central Bay of Bengal and reach the southwest Bay of Bengal by mid-week. It is expected to remain close to coastal Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka as it develops, with the possibility of gaining strength while moving towards the southern peninsula.
Fairly widespread rain and thundershowers are expected along the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts on October 14 and 15. The weather system is then likely to move inland on October 16, increasing the spread and intensity of rainfall over Rayalaseema and other parts of Andhra Pradesh, along with interior Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and coastal Karnataka through October 19.
Skymet said scattered heavy rainfall could occur over large parts of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka during the period. Rain may continue after October 19, although its intensity is expected to ease. The forecast has implications for road travel, outdoor activity and local event arrangements in areas that receive heavier showers, though the report does not provide district-level rainfall warnings or impact assessments.
The developing system could also contribute to the onset of the northeast monsoon over the southern peninsula. Skymet said this would depend on the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. The transition may involve the withdrawal of one monsoon system and the advance of the other occurring almost simultaneously over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
The weather activity is expected to unfold between October 15 and 20. Skymet said the system’s low-latitude track near the equatorial region meant it might not intensify into a storm.
