The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from Maharashtra, with 21 districts recording deficient rainfall and Mumbai expected to experience warmer conditions over the next week. The withdrawal was announced on Saturday, earlier than the usual October 7-10 window.
The IMD said districts including Nagpur, Chandrapur, Hingoli, Beed and Dharashiv recorded deficient rainfall during the monsoon season. Mumbai city and suburban divisions, Thane, Pune, Raigad and Ratnagiri received rainfall within the normal range, while Nashik and Palghar recorded surplus rainfall.
Maharashtra recorded an average actual rainfall of 804.4 mm between June 1 and September 30, against a seasonal average of 994.5 mm, according to IMD figures cited by The Indian Express. This represents a 19 per cent shortfall. However, IMD scientist Sushma Nair said the season could not be classified as deficient under the bureau’s definition because that status requires a shortfall of at least 20 per cent.
The withdrawal is the earliest announced in the last four years. In 2024 and 2025, the monsoon withdrawal was declared on October 15 and October 11 respectively. In 2023, an El Niño-impacted year, the withdrawal was announced on October 6. The IMD has linked this year’s inadequate rainfall to an intensifying El Niño climatic pattern.
The state-wide figures conceal sharp differences between districts. Nashik and Palghar recorded excess rainfall, while neighbouring Ahilya Nagar and Solapur recorded deficient rainfall. The uneven distribution means that a state-level classification of normal rainfall does not fully describe conditions faced by individual districts or local administrations.
Mumbai’s rainfall was similarly uneven. The IMD’s Santacruz observatory recorded a 29 per cent deficit in June, followed by rainfall more than 55 per cent above normal in July. It then recorded deficits of 35 per cent and 49 per cent in August and September. Across the season, Santacruz received 2,530.5 mm, or 9 per cent above its seasonal average of 2,318.8 mm.
At the Colaba observatory, rainfall was 18 per cent below normal in June and 50 per cent above normal in July. The observatory subsequently recorded deficits reported by the IMD for August and September. Its seasonal total was 1,957.1 mm, 7 per cent below the average of 2,102 mm.
Nair said Mumbai’s overall seasonal total was lifted by the heavy rainfall in July, even though the city recorded a shortfall in three of the four monsoon months. The monthly variation is relevant for urban authorities because a normal or surplus seasonal total does not necessarily mean that rainfall was evenly available across the season.
The IMD has also issued a yellow alert for excess heat in Mumbai over the weekend. Officials said temperatures are expected to remain around 35 degrees Celsius for the next week. With the monsoon withdrawal now declared, the weather bureau’s next operational warning for the city concerns warmer conditions rather than continuing seasonal rainfall.
