India is demonstrating significant progress in its climate action commitments, with a new analysis indicating the nation is well on track to surpass its ambitious target of reducing the emissions intensity of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 45 per cent by 2030, compared to 2005 levels.
This robust projection, stemming from a comprehensive emissions modelling exercise conducted by the Delhi-based think-tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and the Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE), an NGO, forecasts a potential decrease in India’s energy sector emission intensity by 48-57 per cent within the stipulated timeframe. This early success underscores India’s commitment to eco-friendly, sustainable, and equitable urban development, showcasing that economic growth and environmental stewardship can proceed in tandem. The findings, recently published in the international journal ‘Energy and Climate Change’, provide crucial insights for India’s forthcoming climate plans. They suggest that India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035 could realistically aim for an emissions intensity reduction of GDP between 55 and 66 per cent relative to 2005 levels, with most scenarios converging around a 56 per cent reduction. Concurrently, the analysis proposes an increase in the non-fossil fuel share in installed power capacity to a substantial 60-68 per cent. This heightened ambition builds upon India’s updated NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC in August 2022, which targeted a 45 per cent emissions intensity reduction and a 50 per cent cumulative electric installed capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.
While India appears set to overachieve its near-term climate targets, the path to its ambitious 2070 net-zero goal, which entails balancing emissions with removals, necessitates further, decisive policy interventions. Experts emphasize the critical role of comprehensive policy reforms, including the introduction of carbon pricing mechanisms, alongside essential power pricing adjustments. Furthermore, sustained fiscal support for clean technologies, enhanced energy efficiency mandates across sectors, and widespread behaviour change initiatives rooted in frameworks like India’s Mission LiFE, are deemed indispensable. Such integrated strategies are pivotal for fostering truly zero-net carbon cities and driving a gender-neutral green transition that benefits all sections of society. Vaibhav Chaturvedi, a Senior Fellow at CEEW, highlighted India’s proactive stance in global climate leadership since the Paris Agreement, asserting that the nation has effectively demonstrated the feasibility of decoupling economic growth from escalating emissions. He reiterated that with determined reforms across electricity pricing, industrial planning, nuclear energy deployment, lifestyle changes, and urban mobility, India possesses the capacity to significantly bend its emissions curve towards net-zero. Chaturvedi underscored the importance of India’s 2035 NDC reflecting not only enhanced ambition but also economic realism, anchored by rigorous analytical assessments. He advocated for a meticulously calibrated strategy encompassing an economy-wide emissions intensity target, sector-specific carbon budgets, and a robust push for low-carbon technologies and clean manufacturing.
Echoing this sentiment, Satish Kumar, President and Executive Director of AEEE, underscored the analytical robustness of their modelling. By integrating key energy efficiency parameters as endogenous variables, their study offers a more accurate representation of the real-world potential of demand-side interventions, making the model highly reflective of India’s unique development realities. The CEEW-AEEE analysis also explored a high-growth scenario aligned with the ‘Viksit Bharat’ vision, which, despite projecting 63 per cent higher absolute emissions by 2070 compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, still indicated a 3 per cent fall in emissions intensity of GDP relative to BAU. This is largely attributed to greater adoption of efficient technologies and deeper integration of renewables within India’s energy mix.
Further analysis revealed that this reduction could be even more pronounced if Indian industries prioritise electricity-driven, low-emission manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors. Behavioural and lifestyle shifts, including reduced private vehicle use, widespread adoption of energy-efficient appliances, and optimised residential energy consumption, could yield up to 10 per cent emissions reductions by 2050 relative to BAU, concurrently alleviating pressure on land resources. Policies that mandate energy-efficient products and prioritise their procurement promise substantial gains at relatively low costs, contributing to energy equity. Additionally, the analysis indicated that lower tariffs for industrial and commercial users could accelerate electrification and boost clean energy uptake, while higher residential tariffs could incentivise rooftop solar adoption, provided targeted support for low-income households ensures equitable access to clean energy solutions.
Also Read: Baranagar Residents Demand Action Against Encroachers
