The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala and parts of northeast India within the next 24 hours, bringing much-needed relief from the prevailing heatwave in northwest and central India.
The IMD’s Wednesday bulletin highlighted a probable decrease in maximum temperatures by 3-4°C in these regions over the coming days. The monsoon’s progress is also expected to extend into parts of the South Arabian Sea, Maldives, Comorin area, Lakshadweep, the Southwest and Central Bay of Bengal, and Northeast Bay of Bengal within the same timeframe. The onset of the monsoon over Kerala, typically occurring around June 1, signals the start of the rainy season in India. This year, driven by the active Bay of Bengal arm influenced by Cyclone ‘Remal’, the monsoon is arriving slightly ahead of schedule. The cyclone has intensified monsoon flows, resulting in heavy rainfall across northeastern states over the past two days. The IMD confirms that Kerala meets all criteria for monsoon onset, including widespread rainfall, south-westerly winds, and low Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR).
Kerala has already experienced significant rainfall this week, causing extensive damage to homes, flooding roads, and disrupting train services. The IMD issued a yellow alert for seven districts, warning of heavy rainfall between 6 cm and 11 cm, with more expected in the coming days. The monsoon’s advance is a critical indicator of the seasonal transition from hot, dry conditions to a wet season, essential for India’s agriculture. With 51% of cultivated land reliant on monsoon rains, which account for 40% of the country’s agricultural output, a timely and bountiful monsoon is crucial for the rural economy. Nearly half of India’s population depends on agriculture, underscoring the monsoon’s economic importance. Additionally, a cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam is anticipated to bring widespread light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds to the northeastern states and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim over the next week. The IMD also predicts isolated heavy rainfall in these regions and in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura.
In southern India, a shear zone over the peninsular region combined with strong westerly winds along the Kerala coast will lead to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds. Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are expected to receive varying degrees of rainfall over the coming week. A new western disturbance is set to affect the Western Himalayan region from May 30, bringing light rainfall and thunderstorms, which will help mitigate the heat in this area. IMD’s precise forecasting and timely alerts are pivotal in ensuring preparedness and reducing the adverse impacts of these weather patterns on the affected regions.
