The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has allayed concerns over the recent week-long stalling of the monsoon, predicting a robust revival of rainfall. According to IMD officials, the southwest monsoon is poised to bring rain over central parts of India “in the next few days,” offering much-needed relief from the heatwave affecting the northern plains.
The IMD had earlier forecasted ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall at 106% of the benchmark average during June-September this year, with a 92% probability of rains being in the “normal-to-excess” range. This optimistic projection is now being reinforced by the latest weather updates.
On Thursday, the IMD predicted “very heavy” rainfall over Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra for the next five days. It also indicated generally cloudy skies in Mumbai, with the possibility of moderate-to-heavy rains. Additionally, the monsoon has advanced into more regions, including Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, the Bay of Bengal, West Bengal, and Bihar.
Private weather forecaster Skymet has echoed these sentiments, although it noted that monsoon progress on the western side may remain slow. Gujarat, in particular, is expected to experience significant rainfall towards the end of the month, between 26th and 29th June. Skymet also suggested that this year’s monsoon pattern might mirror last year’s, where the monsoon covered the entire country ahead of schedule.
Despite some predicted uneven distribution of rainfall, particularly in the paddy-growing regions of east and north India, the “monsoon core zone” in central India is expected to receive above-normal precipitation. This bodes well for the agriculture sector, which experienced a 4.4% annual decline in output (gross value added) in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June), following a steady rise over the previous six years.
The finance ministry has stated that the forecast of an above-normal monsoon in 2024 is encouraging for a good harvest and could help ease inflation concerns.
A recent Reserve Bank of India (RBI) paper highlighted the brightening prospects for agriculture with the early arrival of the southwest monsoon. The paper also noted that headline inflation is gradually easing, driven by a sustained softening of its core component, despite volatility in food prices.
“The ongoing disinflation, driven by the softening of the core component of consumer price index (CPI) inflation to a new low, validates the current monetary policy stance. However, as long as food price pressures persist, aligning inflation with its target remains a work in progress,” the paper added.
With the monsoon’s revival, there is renewed optimism for kharif sowing, crucial for ensuring food security and stabilising the economy. The anticipated rainfall in the coming days is expected to significantly improve the prospects for a robust kharif harvest, thereby supporting the overall agricultural growth and economic stability.
